1/ Offers are a short-term solution to a long-term game

There’s tons of advice on how/when/why to run offers

But not so much about how to play the long game

This is the 1st thread in a series about how to play the long game

Let’s start at the beginning -

2/ In 1861, John Wannamaker opened his first store in Philly

It grew quickly thanks to a simple business principle that was revolutionary at the time:

"One price and goods returnable"

Until then, haggling was common

But not anymore - the price tag had just been born

3/ In 1889, Asa Candler bought the rights to Coca-Cola for $2,300

He invented a marketing tool to get product into customers hands - an ad in magazines offering a free glass of Coca-Cola

He named it his invention the coupon after the French word "couper," meaning "to cut"

4/ At the end of the 19th century, psychological pricing - like prices ending in .99 - started to make an appearance

In the early 1900s a new wave of consumerism started to take root

Manufacturers began hosting games, sweeps, and gimmicks to drive sales

5/ For example, in 1912 Cracker Jack started including prizes in every box

And in 1939, Oscar Mayer Weiner introduced the Weinermobile, the most extra marketing gimmick there ever was

Here I am in 2001 auditioning to sing the OMW song in a commercial (yes this is real)

6/ In 1920 the first department store-sponsored Thanksgiving Day Parade took place in Philly

Not long after, department stores across the country started hosting their own parades

The most famous, Macy's in NYC, started in 1924

7/ Thanksgiving Day Parades were a great marketing tool for department stores

There was an unspoken rule that no one would advertise for the Christmas shopping season until after Thanksgiving

So these parades acted as a celebratory gateway to the shopping bonanza that followed

8/ From the time Abe Lincoln was in office, Tgiving was held on the last Thurs in Nov

That is until 1939, when things get interesting

That year, Nov had 5 Thursdays meaning there would be 1 less week of Holiday sales

America had just recovered from the Depression

9/ Out of concern for retailers, FDR decided to move Thanksgiving - as in the literal holiday - up a week

This would give retailers an extra week to eek out more sales

Oh and guess who brought this whole thing up to FDR in the first place?

10/ None other than Fred Lazarus, Jr., founder of Federated Department Stores, which later became Macy's

To recap: it's 1939 - price tags, coupons, and marketing gimmicks are in full swing and the president just moved an American holiday up a week so people could shop more

11/ Starting in the 80s and 90s the balance of power shifted from manufacturers to individual brands

With this shift, brands had more control over pricing and offers as we know them today started to take shape

12/ The insanity really began to unfold in the early 2000s as Black Friday Door Busters reached a fever pitch

In 2009, Kmart started their Black Friday offers on Thursday, kicking off a trend of retailers opening earlier and earlier to steeper and steeper discounts

13/ Since 2006, there have been 12 deaths and 117 injuries caused by Black Friday crowds

In 2005 the National Retail Federation introduced Cyber Monday to boost online sales

This has slowly given way to Cyber Week and of course, we can't ignore Prime Day which debuted in 2015

14/ Internationally, the offer landscape is mixed

Alibaba introduced Single's Day in 2009

British companies tend to offer BFCM deals, but the shopping isn't as voracious

15/ In 2007, I moved to Germany for 3 years

I was 16 and loved to shop but remember being surprised by how few stores had sale sections, something I was totally accustomed to at home

Turns out, this was because of a 1930s era law - the Rabattsgesetzt

16/ The Rabattsgesetzt carefully regulated when and how German retailers could run promotions

It was in place as a consumer protection measure and repealed in 2001

Under the law, there were only 2 weeks a year when retailers could run promotions...

17/ 1 week in summer and 1 week in winter

By the time I arrived, the law was repealed but behavior hadn't changed much and those promotional weeks were still largely respected

To this day, Germans aren't as offer crazed as us Americans

18/ This year, the pandemic obviously had an effect on BFCM, shifting sales out of stores and into digital

It seems every year offers start earlier, last longer, and message deeper discounts

But there's a growing trend of brands, and consumers, starting to resist

19/ This year, Allbirds raised prices by a dollar, donating the profits to charity

Other brands, like Patagonia, used the extra eyeballs to focus on social and environmental issues

Will more brands stop playing into the Holiday sales madness?

20/ The question has been on my mind

In this thread, we covered how we got here

To know where to go from here, we next need to understand the psychology that drives purchase behavior and the basics of price theory...

21/ Can't wait to dust off my Econ degree for this one

See you next week(ish) for part deux