Read on Twitter
This is a thread about the economy, and what economists are predicting. /1
You-know-what hits the fan around Dec 2022. The cycles ... point to the lowest stock market of our lifetime ... If you buy stocks at that time, you’ll never see those lows again. /2 https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/12/03/harry-dent-market-crash-coming-in-2-3-years-economy-already-dead/
Abt 19% of publicly traded companies are zombies: They’re operating but can’t pay the principal & interest on their debt service. We have this zombie economy that’s just going to keep stumbling along; small businesses can’t float bonds [and are failing]. /3
We’ll just keep having more biz failures into early next yr. The vaccine[s] won’t come out on a broad enough scale 2 B effective until the 2nd or 3rd quarter. By the time the [govt] comes up w/2nd stimulus plan& the Fed reacts next yr, it will be almost too late. /4
The job market recovery is at risk of stalling out as the pandemic intensifies. The rapid loss of momentum in the economy raises the pressure on DC
The US added just 245,000 jobs in Nov, the weakest pace of hiring during the pandemic. /5 https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/04/economy/unemployment-jobs-stimulus/index.html
The US added just 245,000 jobs in Nov, the weakest pace of hiring during the pandemic. /5 https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/04/economy/unemployment-jobs-stimulus/index.html
the U.S. has recovered 56% of the jobs that were lost in March and April, and payroll employment is still 9.8 million below its pre-pandemic levels. /6 https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/04/942114022/job-growth-slows-sharply-in-november-as-pandemic-takes-toll-on-economy
the US is heading into 2021 w/the amount of new daily cases rising to record highs and 9.8 million fewer Americans on payroll compared to pre-pandemic levels.
federal moratoria on evictions& student debt, are also set to expire at the end of Dec /7 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/12-million-people-to-be-kicked-off-unemployment-insurance-benefits-after-christmas-215849238.html
federal moratoria on evictions& student debt, are also set to expire at the end of Dec /7 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/12-million-people-to-be-kicked-off-unemployment-insurance-benefits-after-christmas-215849238.html
The US economic recovery is losing momentum as the pandemic escalates, forcing companies to readjust hiring plans.
Job growth slowed for the fifth month in a row in November with the U.S. economy adding back the smallest number of jobs in seven months. /8 https://money.yahoo.com/economy-jobs-report-coronavirus-surge-stimulus-175843599.html
Job growth slowed for the fifth month in a row in November with the U.S. economy adding back the smallest number of jobs in seven months. /8 https://money.yahoo.com/economy-jobs-report-coronavirus-surge-stimulus-175843599.html
The Covid-19 crisis could be worse than the Great Recession for companies that had high levels of indebtedness at the start of the outbreak, according to economists /9 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-01/fed-economists-warn-of-debt-overhang-problem-from-covid-crisis
once Trump realizes he's not going to be president, he has no incentive to give a trillion or $2 trillion stimulus to Biden. Remember, when Obama came to power during a severe recession, there was not a single Republican who voted for that stimulus. /10 https://finance.yahoo.com/video/lots-people-going-suffer-nouriel-205414176.html
OPEC cartel and allies such as Russia will start ramping up oil production in January, but at a much more gradual rate than previously planned, in recognition of the ongoing economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. /11 https://www.npr.org/2020/12/03/938972926/opec-to-modestly-boost-output-ending-divisive-talks-amid-uncertain-global-econom
Chevron Corp. said it would cut its annual capital spending budget by 26% next year and sharply through the middle of the decade, as the coronavirus pandemic forces an industrywide reappraisal of fossil-fuel investment. /12 https://www.wsj.com/articles/chevron-slashes-spending-plans-as-coronavirus-hammers-oil-demand-11607002756
The reductions by the oil giant follow those announced this wk by rival Exxon, reducing its yrly spending by abt $5 billion-$10 billion each yr thru 2025.
Exxon has lost over $2.3 billion in the first 3 quarters of 2020, also said it wld slash value of its assets by $20 bil./13
Exxon has lost over $2.3 billion in the first 3 quarters of 2020, also said it wld slash value of its assets by $20 bil./13
The U.S. dollar is currently hovering around lows last seen in April 2018 as investors continue to pour back into riskier assets, and analysts expect this weakness to persist into 2021. /14 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/analysts-predict-further-weakness-for-us-dollar-next-year.html
“We forecast another 5-10% dollar decline through 2021 as the Fed allows the U.S. economy to run hot,” ING chief economist Carsten Brzeski said in a research note Thursday, and the Dutch lender sees the euro well on its way to changing hands at $1.25. /15
“Global economic recovery shld benefit pro-growth currencies against the USD: The world is on the cusp of a major inflection point, a vaccine rollout&subsequent economic normalization, that we expect to prove positive for the currencies of exporters,” /16 https://www.barrons.com/articles/dollar-could-keep-weakening-as-vaccines-roll-out-what-that-means-for-stocks-51606857197
I have long maintained that Canada will emerge in the post-Trump era as a world leader:
The outlook for the Canadian dollar has improved on expectations the currency will benefit from domestic economic stimulus and the rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine /17 https://www.investing.com/news/economy/canadian-dollar-forecasts-shift-higher-as-ottawa-pads-economic-support-reuters-poll-2361821
The outlook for the Canadian dollar has improved on expectations the currency will benefit from domestic economic stimulus and the rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine /17 https://www.investing.com/news/economy/canadian-dollar-forecasts-shift-higher-as-ottawa-pads-economic-support-reuters-poll-2361821
