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Covid Epi Weekly: Public Health Waking Up From Politics-Induced Coma
Cases, hospitalizations, deaths worsening. Vaccination coming - let’s make sure as many of us as possible live to see that day. We must double down on protection protocols. Together, we’re stronger and safer.1/
Cases, hospitalizations, deaths worsening. Vaccination coming - let’s make sure as many of us as possible live to see that day. We must double down on protection protocols. Together, we’re stronger and safer.1/
Highest case, hospitalization rates in US ever. Cases cresting in much of midwest, still very high. Some of decrease in past week: less testing/care over holiday. My father, who ran intensive care units, commented: “Only very sick people come in on Thanksgiving and Christmas.” 2/
Cresting doesn't mean low. “Lower”: “sky high but not quite as sky high”. Stunning: more than 1 in 3 people in S Dakota infected. By Jan 20, if it were a country, it would have highest death rate in world: ~1 of every 60 people over age 70 killed by this preventable infection. 3/
We must share info on how hard it’s raining Covid in every county, every week. Empowers people to know their risk and community leaders to take steps to lower risk by nuanced closures - or circuit-breaker stay-at-home times. CDC has ever-improving data. https://bit.ly/36JmvCZ 4/
Massively high numbers in most of US. 251 cases/100,000/week is orders of magnitude higher than levels where it’s plausible to do contact tracing well. We all have to assume we’re exposed. And that’s before the post-Thanksgiving surge. Another site: https://bit.ly/37FyvEG 5/
Positivity rates probably the best single metric, but needs standardization. Standardizing how percent positivity is measured and reported should be a high priority for the federal government. 6/ https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view
Hospitals increasingly overloaded. Results: decreased survival rates of Covid patients, more infections and deaths among health care workers, and more illness and death from non-Covid conditions that don’t receive the care needed. They keep having to add colors to this map. 7/
Stunningly low flu rates. 17. SEVENTEEN positive flu cultures in all sentinel sites in the country. But it can still come. Get your flu shot. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm 8/
Great to see CDC scientists speaking directly to the public again, after a hiatus of 9 months. A pregnant pause. We’re all safer when we can hear about the facts as they’re being uncovered. Good guidance on how to get through the holidays more safely. https://bit.ly/37AXiKe 9/
Vaccines are coming, but won’t be here soon enough. We must double down on protection protocols. I outline what we don’t yet know about vaccines and what we need to do now to save lives & restore economic & educational growth. Please read (no paywall!) https://on.wsj.com/3lIG8zp 10/
New ACIP guidance this week is appropriate and sensible. No jumping the line. It will be months before vaccine is widely available, and then it’s a 2-dose series, so another month or two for immunity to kick in. We’re many months away from being out of the woods. 11/
I’m appalled at how Operation Warp Speed discuss vaccination. To hear them it’s a math problem and sounds like delivering groceries: right temperature, prompt restocking. That’s a formula for failure. Change happens at the speed of trust: of clinicians, communities, patients. 12/
There are science- and fact-based ways to increase vaccine uptake. Good report by @WHO group led by my friend the squash legend @CassSunstein. Make vaccination the easy default action, supported by social norms, and increase motivation. https://bit.ly/39KRhxk 13/
Historical note: Ben Franklin’s favorite son died of smallpox after Franklin decided not to vaccinate him. Franklin never got over the guilt, but made sure Washington’s troops were vaccinated, which may have made the difference and won the war. Avoid anticipated regret. 14/
Vaccination will be a bumpy. People who think Covid isn’t serious won't be eager for vaccine. People who fear “Trump vaccine” may not take it. Vaccination is our best way forward. The more information we share openly, the sooner we’ll get toward normal. We're in this together 15/
The more we mask up, the safer we all are. The more we keep distance, the safer we all are. The less we all travel, the safer we all are. The more, eventually, we get vaccinated, the sooner we can end the pandemic. We are all connected. 16/
Greatest pandemic hope: we recognize and act on our connectedness. Greatest risk: becoming inured to suffering: one death is a tragedy, a million deaths a statistic. Donne: “Any death diminishes me. Therefore never send to know for whom the bells tolls; it tolls for thee.” 17/end
