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So now we know in more detail what we've argued all year long. Everyone said we were exaggerating. It was actually worse than we thought.
1. Containment was a real option. It was hidden from view. Mitigation was chosen, then presented as inevitable.
1. Containment was a real option. It was hidden from view. Mitigation was chosen, then presented as inevitable.
2. Mitigation was called "controlled free run" between ministries, which became "maximum control" in official communication, a meaningless propaganda term.
3. The authorities knew very well that the measures were looser than in other countries.
3. The authorities knew very well that the measures were looser than in other countries.
4. After the mitigation strategy was chosen, communication became key. Defending the strategy against, well, us was necessary. Not so much against denialists: same-ish.
5. Misleading was deemed necessary. People don't like to have their bodies claimed for experiments.
5. Misleading was deemed necessary. People don't like to have their bodies claimed for experiments.
6. The term herd immunity was the name of the strategy chosen. Contrary to what has been claimed, it is not a side effect but the core of the strategy.
Although they must've known about the risks: there was a risk that even herd immunity wouldn't stop the virus.
Although they must've known about the risks: there was a risk that even herd immunity wouldn't stop the virus.
7. Why was containment not tried? Data from China, fed into the SEIR model of @rivm, made most infections seem asymptomatic/aerosol. That made containment look extremely difficult and viral spread less costly in terms of death.
8. Other European countries thought the same, but quickly discovered that loose measures clogged up hospitals very quickly. And that containment wasn't that difficult. NL stayed the course.
9. Why did NL not try to contain?
Because they wanted. The ego of Jaap van Dissel. Arrogance of the system and culture. Framing of braking as expensive.
And because they could. Van Dissel's powerful position. An empty PM chair. Loyal media. Anti-hypochondric population.
Because they wanted. The ego of Jaap van Dissel. Arrogance of the system and culture. Framing of braking as expensive.
And because they could. Van Dissel's powerful position. An empty PM chair. Loyal media. Anti-hypochondric population.
10. Between the massively blacked out documents of the FoI request, it seems the instinct was that braking costs money. True with flu. Lie a bit about risk, keep people working and spending, they'll get it anyway.
We know now they are literally running the influenza plan.
We know now they are literally running the influenza plan.
11. The biggest bombshell: the consistent communication downplaying aerosols and asymptomatic was a lie.
How do we know? They told Parliament that they chose the strategy because asymptomatic spread (aerosols) was dominant.
And because they admitted aerosols were inconvenient.
How do we know? They told Parliament that they chose the strategy because asymptomatic spread (aerosols) was dominant.
And because they admitted aerosols were inconvenient.
12. So not corruption, not thinning the herd, not some evil international plan, but merely arrogance, moral emptiness and intellectual laziness, enabled by strong Club Holland feelings, could be sufficient to explain this trainwreck.
Although there certainly is corruption too.
Although there certainly is corruption too.
13. The documents also prove they knew that looser controls would close the borders for a while. Extremely expensive for a small open country.
Points to the "red cape flowing" thinking of @BorisJohnson. Take it on the chin, emerge open for biz with a resistant population.
Points to the "red cape flowing" thinking of @BorisJohnson. Take it on the chin, emerge open for biz with a resistant population.
14. This mercantilistic thinking, (all for commerce) beautifully combines the Dutch self-image of an aircraft carrier for commercial interests and the Calvinistic masochism of suffering hard for a while for some Heaven later on.
Cooler heads knew this was madness. Still is.
Cooler heads knew this was madness. Still is.
15. A list was drawn up that, if an event of the list happened, would put the viral spread strategy under pressure. Interestingly, it all happened.
That the policy still stands is testament to amazing media loyalty, weak democratic defenses and a culture of exceptionalism.
That the policy still stands is testament to amazing media loyalty, weak democratic defenses and a culture of exceptionalism.
Here's a link to the FoI documents that became public this week. Well, public: much was blacked out. https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/documenten/publicaties/2020/12/02/bijlage-wob-iccb-maart-deel-4
Our analysis of why and how the Dutch Corona fiasco came about, based on FoI releases.@yaneerbaryam @saveswedencov19 @WellenbrecherJ @DrZoeHyde @annaholligan
@NaomiOhReally @milenaholdert @ReneevanHest @ZeroCovid_UK @Under_Covid @jaapstronks @DrKatrin_Rabiei
In case of any doubt, the government has been quite open all along about going for herd immunity. But that was just too painful for people to believe, so they chose not to. https://twitter.com/jaapstronks/status/1313108920915943427?s=19
