1. A thread on some possible knock-on benefits of masking/distancing for #Covid19.
Before the pandemic, 2020 was expected to be a big year for #AFM, a kind of mysterious polio-like condition that @CDCgov has been tracking in kids since 2014. Cases spike every second autumn.
2. It's not 100% clear but it's thought infection with an enterovirus causes an aberrant immune response in some kids & they go on to develop acute flaccid myelitis. 2020 was expected to be a surge year for #AFM. Hasn't happened. https://www.cdc.gov/acute-flaccid-myelitis/cases-in-us.html?ACSTrackingID=USCDC_1200-DM19119&ACSTrackingLabel=Acute%20Flaccid%20Myelitis%20%28AFM%29%20in%20the%20United%20States%20-%2012%2F4%2F2020&deliveryName=USCDC_1200-DM19119
3. It's still too early to be sure, but #flu activity may be lower this year too, because of mask wearing, hand washing, distancing & less international travel. As one ID doc told me this week, hospitals need this kind of a break; they cannot cope with flu on top of #Covid19.
4. The Southern Hemisphere had almost no #influenza in their 2020 winter, though that was at the height of lockdowns. Still, people have hoped the same may happen in the Northern Hemisphere winter. So far, @CDCgov is reporting very little #flu activity. Blue arrow points to 2020.
5. Canada is also reporting very little #flu. Like almost none — rates are "exceptionally low... despite continued monitoring for influenza across Canada," according to @PHAC_GC. There's just a little sporadic activity in Southern Ontario, down near the US border.
6. Most of Europe is also reporting low #flu activity, according to @ECDC_EU.
7. Back to the US: It is too soon to assume we're going to get a break on #flu this year & this week's @CDCgov flu report shows a tiny increase in reporting. We'll get a sense in a few weeks if Thanksgiving gatherings sparked flu spread. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
8. There've been 0 flu deaths in kids so far. It's tempting to think this presages less #flu this year but it's still early. I compared @CDCgov data on peds flu deaths over several seasons, including 2015-16, which was a late flu season. In each there were a few early deaths.
9. I think there's reason to hope the measures we take to try to curb #Covid19 (those of us who take 'em!) will help constrain spread of the viruses that cause #flu & colds as well. Plus there could be some kind of viral interference thing going on, maybe?
Anyway, #MaskUp!
You can follow @HelenBranswell.
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