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$XERS So today I wanted to dive a bit into why Pramlintide is possibly a game changer.
So what is Pramlintide? It is a drug which is analouge to the hormon Amylin which the human body normally produces in the pancreas. Diabetics don´t produce it anymore but healthy individuals produce about 1/100th of the amount of insulin in their own bodies.
Insulin was found in the 1920s, but Pramlintide much later in 1987. It slows the speed of food processing and limits blood sugar spikes. It would be used as an addition to meal time insulin, but currently it is not widely used.
That´s bc it´s inconvenient, you would have to get the ratio of insulin and Pramlintide right and get two injections. The benefits are: a) possible weight loss (+ve for diabetic and in general), b) less insulin usage, and c) better blood sugar contral.
Xeris combined Insulin & Pramlintide into 1 injection, reducing needed Insulin and getting at least the same results comp if you would administer both separatley.
In the Xeris Phase 2 study there were no additional sideeffects compared to Insulin alone or two separte injections.
In the Xeris Phase 2 study there were no additional sideeffects compared to Insulin alone or two separte injections.
So we have, additional benefits for patients as a +ve. But you know what? EOY most patents for Insulin are ending! Could be a good idea to get new ones. Possibly XeriJect could extend patent life here or create new patents that would shield this combo for > 10 years.
Altough companies are already working on new Insulin formulations that would extend patent life.
Which patients could benefit the most?
a) It´s usable for both T1 and T2 diabetics. b) For T1 the most to gain are those where blood glucose control with insulin is not working very well. c) For T2 it´s best for patients with a high body weight.
a) It´s usable for both T1 and T2 diabetics. b) For T1 the most to gain are those where blood glucose control with insulin is not working very well. c) For T2 it´s best for patients with a high body weight.
Ideal partner companies include Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi as the dominant insulin player or AstraZeneca who owns Pramlintide.
In 2019 AstraZeneca had 34 mln $ revenue from Symlin their Pramlintide drug. But how big could the market grow? 2011 the last independent year of AMYLIN PHARMACEUTICALS they had sales of 104 mln $.
Currently 8.3 mln people in the US need insulin to regulate blood glucose levels. The worldwide market for insulin is >20 bln $. Most of this is in the so called meal time insulin products which are fast to intermediate acting but don´t last very long.
Per patients costs are between 50$ and 300$ in different countries per month.
Main competition will mostly come from GLP-1 products.
The initial inventors believed US market could be 1.3 mln patients, altough that was roughly 12 years ago.
Main competition will mostly come from GLP-1 products.
The initial inventors believed US market could be 1.3 mln patients, altough that was roughly 12 years ago.
So what would be a relastic TAM?
Let´s say 1.0 mln patients US and EU that would take combination drug. Average price / month 150$. That would be 1.8 bln $ p.a. Xeris would maybe get 20-30% from that. Thats at least 360 mln revenue p.a! Or at least 15$ additional share price!
Let´s say 1.0 mln patients US and EU that would take combination drug. Average price / month 150$. That would be 1.8 bln $ p.a. Xeris would maybe get 20-30% from that. Thats at least 360 mln revenue p.a! Or at least 15$ additional share price!
For additional info see: https://www.americanactionforum.org/research/understanding-the-insulin-market/
Fun Fact:
Corporate presentation Amylin from 2001:
http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/NSD/AMLN/presentations/WFVKPres/sld016.htm
Corporate presentation Amylin from 2001:
http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/NSD/AMLN/presentations/WFVKPres/sld016.htm
