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A thread on #Turkey and the #NDAA, specifically the #CAATSA sanctions for the purchase of Russian S-400s. Bear with me, it’s not that simple. The NDAA is considered must-pass legislation, with provisions on many key issues, including troop pay.
This year’s bill includes a provision requiring the president to impose sanctions on Turkey per Section 231 of CAATSA within 30 days of enactment of the NDAA. To refresh, CAATSA offers a menu of sanctions and lets the president choose: they run from the symbolic to the severe.
Congress wants to force Trump’s hand, as he’s so far refused to sanction Turkey under CAATSA. The 30 days time-frame would, in theory, keep it in Trump’s term.
“Enactment” -- which starts the 30 day clock -- is from when the president signs the bill.
Trump has ten days (excluding Sundays) from final passage of the NDAA to sign it, or it becomes law by default (also “enactment”).
Trump has ten days (excluding Sundays) from final passage of the NDAA to sign it, or it becomes law by default (also “enactment”).
But Trump has threatened to veto the whole bill over (among other things) provisions requiring the renaming of US bases named for Confederate generals. He could be bluffing. But there may also be cynical political considerations around this tied to the two GA senate runoffs.
If he’s bluffing and doesn’t veto, then he must impose sanctions within 30 days or break the law (again). What’s another crime at this point? He is apparently pretty checked out of governing and is just watching Fox News or OANN. So Trump may just ignore it, but who knows?
Some think Pompeo could push sanctions through without Trump even taking an interest. Pompeo is incredibly anti-Turkish of late, beyond what might be reasonable. But pushing through sanctions is quite a gambit. Again, nobody knows, because this administration is pure chaos.
If NDAA language passes and Trump ignores it, Biden will likely have to carry out the law Trump refused to carry out. This would be willful sabotage from Trump, in my opinion, but…I mean…look at his actions. Perhaps he'll want to protect his Turkish business interests.
If Trump does veto, as threatened, then Congress could in theory override the veto (assuming they have the votes, which I assume they do based on veto proof votes in both houses) and restart the 30-day clock.
They’d have until January 3, in theory, when this Congress expires and the new Congress begins. But, depending on the timing of the veto, they’d have to keep Members here through the holidays and use floor time to do it. Seems unlikely?
There’s also the slim chance of a pocket veto, where Trump can sit on the bill if Congress adjourns during the ten-day period after passage before presidential signature or formal veto. But Congress can stay in pro forma session to prevent that with relative ease.
If he vetoes, the new Congress could convene and re-pass the NDAA. Assuming they include the same language (most of the same people would be involved), this would kick it into Biden’s term. Though there is a chance Congress softens the language to give Biden room to maneuver.
Either way, it would push it into Biden’s term and he’d have choice of imposing five sanctions from the CAATSA menu or ignoring the law (which seems less likely than Trump doing so).
My guess is Biden will not want to flout Congress as one of his first acts in the wake of four years of Trumpian erosion of the rule of law.
But it’s a tough way to start your term vis a vis Turkey—which will almost certainly react with severe hostility to even pro forma sanctions—especially when Trump could have helped the national interest and easily avoided the trap.
Is this a helluvah way to run a country? Well, sure. There are many, many good reasons Congress should be more involved in foreign policy, though this episode points to some of the complexity involved.
With thanks to my colleague @alanmakovsky for his help parsing this out.
With thanks to my colleague @alanmakovsky for his help parsing this out.
