Thread: @CSInstituteCO' latest analysis of how the Colorado state budget has changed since 2008 paints a picture of an economy heading towards failure. Here's why... #copolitics #coleg #edcolo @coloradobrt @ColoConcern https://commonsenseinstituteco.org/co-budget-then-and-now/

Based on data from the STL Fed, between 2008 and 2019 CO's nominal GDP grew by 54%. Between FY08 and FY21 the state budget grew by 84%. The underlying dynamics were even more interesting...

Social safety net spending (Healthcare & Human Services) grew by 169%, from 31% to 46% of the budget. Some of this was due to cost increases, and some due to a growing number of people in a rapidly changing economy who needed those safety net services...

One of the reasons for this was that the quality of our human capital wasn't keeping up with rapid changes in the knowledge and skills the economy needed...

State spending on human capital development (K12, HigherEd, and Labor&Employment) grew by only 44%, falling from 40% to 31% of the budget. K12 spending grew by 46%, but 8th grd NAEP reading and math scores did not change b/w 2007 and 2019...

But even as K12 prepares fewer kids to thrive in the 21st century economy, public sector pension costs (PERA) are consuming an ever-growing share of state and local budgets, leaving less money for everything else...

It's only the inflow of educated talent from outside CO that has kept this unstable system from plunging into crisis. But how much longer can this continue? Underinvestment in infrastructure has made it ever harder for immigrants to access the CO lifestyle that drew them here...

As transplants marry and have children, they're discovering that many of CO's schools aren't providing their kids with the education they need to thrive in the 21st century economy...

As the ratio of people who aren't thriving in the CO economy increases compared to those who are, social safety net costs rise ever higher, and approval of large state tax increases seems more likely - but with no improvement in government performance (i.e., a decrease in value).

Eventually the inflow of talent will slow (and if CA is a guide, eventually reverse), perhaps to be replaced with more retirees escaping even worse situations elsewhere (count the number of Illinois plates in Breck these days). But retirees generate a lot less tax revenue...

In sum, CSI's latest report paints a picture of a system that is becoming increasingly unstable, and heading towards deeper crises. There isn't a silver bullet to reverse the decline. Only a larger (and more integrated) set of policy changes (that are implemented) can do that.

Unfortunately, the integrated changes that the progressive leaders who control CO's state government have in mind seem to be modeled on California. And just look at how they've turned out...