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I know 2020 is the year of bad idea jeans, but some of the punditry coming out about Taiwan right now fails to meet even this low standard.
Take this piece for example: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/no-american-lives-should-be-lost-to-defend-taiwan/
It claims the US is “sleepwalking” into a major conflict over Taiwan. It suggests China can take Taiwan in two weeks. And it makes an ugly & grossly misleading claim that the “Taiwanese fought on the side of Japan in the Pacific War.”
No, the US isn’t sleepwalking into a war over Taiwan. Precisely the opposite. We're finally waking up to the challenge & are in the process of having important, sophisticated & overdue debates over whether & how the US-Taiwan relationship should evolve.
No, it is not “highly likely that China could subdue Taiwan in just two weeks.” There are plenty of analysts & planners who would disagree with this assessment. (Of course the only evidence supporting this claim is a self-cited piece).
In any case, the US and Taiwan are taking steps to ensure that an invasion would be anything but a cakewalk for the PLA. For more see: https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/taiwans-overall-defense-concept-explained/
I presume the point about Taiwanese siding with Japan in WWII is meant to rhetorically smear Taiwan’s reputation. Of course the author ignores the fact that Japan occupied Taiwan during (and before) the war, which means the Taiwanese didn’t have much of a say in the matter.
Or that Taiwan (like Japan) is now a flourishing liberal democracy. But hey, I suppose we shouldn’t let facts get in the way of a good smear campaign.
Without a doubt, these sorts of unhelpful, facile pieces are popping up on both sides of the issue. Take this one: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/12/02/taiwan-is-building-eight-new-submarines-they-alone-could-destroy-a-chinese-invasion-fleet/?sh=5a99776533d8
No, Taiwan’s 8 new submarines could not destroy a Chinese invasion fleet on their own (but they will sink a chunk of Taiwan’s defense budget).
Bottom line: We are talking about Taiwan. The challenge is real. It’s complex. And it’s not going away. So we’re doing ourselves a disservice if we let catchy, crude arguments shape the conversation.
