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How bad will the #COVID surge be this winter? A
with three possible scenarios.
with three possible scenarios.
We're likely about 2 months from a peak in late January/early February. We can expect expect somewhere around 290,000 new positives tests and 4,500 reported deaths per day at the peak. As seen in other surges, downslope is likely to be longer than upslope.
This would translate into about 13 million active infections by late January. This is about 3.5% of the US population infected with #COVID at the same time.
Hospital utilization will peak at about 200,000 patients, with around 40,000 of those patients needing ICU-level support. This is about 150% capacity nationwide, with some areas seeing 200% surges.
We modeled three different scenarios. Best case: we all stay at home for 8 weeks. Cases rise about 10% above current levels. Deaths peak at 4k/day (3k reported).
Moderate case: less social distancing/mask adherence over time as COVID fatigue sets in. Cases up 2x to peak at 500k cases/day. Deaths at 10k/day, 6-7k reported.
Worst case: we all go back to normal. Catastrophic. 1.2 million cases/day, 25k deaths/day.
The #COVID 'surge' is actually a rolling set of peaks. First peak is the midwest in mid-December. Then the SE, then the coasts, NYC, LA see surges in later January.
Ensemble model probability distribution is relatively tight. Based on recent trends, we are somewhere between the best and moderate cases. High-side risk is greater: more likely we overshoot than undershoot.
You can read the full forecast here, along with methods and modeling details. We use a gridded, population stratified SEIR model for each simulation. Thanks to the @datacontours team for all the hard work! https://datareich.substack.com/p/covid-winter-forecast
