I want to preface my following remarks by emphasizing that I am speaking purely from a realpolitik standpoint. I am disregarding any moral, ideological, or human rights considerations.

CHINA, TAIWAN, and US OPTIONS

~ A Short Thread ~

Whether or not China is currently considering/planning to seize control of Taiwan (see linked article below) is uncertain at this point.

However, if I were in China's shoes, looking through their eyes, I would choose NOW as the time to act.

1/n https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-pushing-things-boiling-point-admin-says-pentagon-alarmed-over-taiwan

Now, while the US continues to be embroiled in election controversy; presumably between presidents.

Now, with the US military over-extended throughout the world.

Now, before promised new arms sales to Taiwan are delivered.

Now, with the South China Sea secured.

2/n

Now, with US/China relations in tatters, and apparently no hope for improvement any time soon.

Now, with Hong Kong re-assimilated into China proper with almost no international outcry.

Now, with the US military as weak as it has been in decades.

3/n

Would it be a gamble? Sure. Is there risk the US would attempt to intervene? In my opinion, that risk is vastly overstated. I have become convinced the Pentagon has no appetite for taking on China to save Taiwan. To do so risks needlessly exposing US military weakness.

4/n

In short, I can see how China could very well calculate that NOW presents a better opportunity than at any time since the Nationalist Chinese fled to Formosa.

Will they act? Probably not. But I would not rule it out.

/end