Thought on my mind this morning, that honestly I just keep coming back to.

Netflix paid what, $50 million per film to Disney for their streaming deal back in the day? Maybe a bit more than that for the SW/Marvel films.

And this math is SO crucial to the straight-to-streaming wars, if an article doesn't include it, you have to demand to know why.

Because the streaming logic is that when a film is "exclusive" to streaming, it's more valuable.

But does this math make sense?

If a film is twice as valuable, then its worth $100 million for streaming.

Four times still gets you to $200

But then look at something like Increidbles 2. Not even the biggest Disney film.

And it did $1.2 billion at the box office. And still got that $50 million from Netflix. https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Incredibles-2#tab=summary

So if Netflix had bought it exclusively, was it worth--checking math--25 times more in value?

Gosh no. Gosh no.

Hence why even if straight to streaming stays, something has to change. My guess are these three things:

- Production budgets (lower)
- Talent backend (smaller)
- Profit on films (worse)

By the way, Mulan is available on Disney+ now... https://decider.com/2020/12/03/what-time-is-mulan-on-disney-plus/

Sorry, more on this. Think of it like this equation:

P = ProdB + M - BO - HE - F1 - F2 - L

Or Production Budget, Marketing, Box Office, Home Ent, first window, second window and library (streaming, premium, linear, etc)

I could add coefficients in front of each, but let's keep it simple.

Basically, folks tell me that the loss of BO/HE will be more than made up for by F1-F2-L.

But that math don't work/dog don't hunt.

Because F1-F2-L are included in the current model. And since bulk streaming decreases the margins, frankly they aren't more valuable.

I also see some folks saying, "Ah, but Disney and HBO Max will own global rights?"

They already sell their films internationally! You think Avengers wasn't available in Brazil? South Korea? Japan? Europe?

So that's saying "F1 owned by us is" is more valuable than "F1 owned by third party".

When the reality is...it's probably the same. Or slightly more valuable.

More on this because I really think so much of the narrative (which is fairly bullish for HBO Max) doesn't make a ton of sense.

So the logic isn't, "How valuable is it to have these films on HBO Max?"

Because EVERY single one of the films was destined for HBO.

Because HBO has a WB output deal. Every WB film ends up on HBO and hence HBO Max.

The question is how much more valuable is it to shorten that window by three months.

And frankly, I don't think it is.

If I subscribe to HBO for $15 a month to watch, in part, these movies, then them coming early probably isn't crucial to my financial calculus.