[Thread]
David Moyes’s West Ham have been brilliant this season. They sit 5th, only 4 points off the top. This is a massive improvement from last season. So what changed?

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Firstly, why is West Ham’s start impressive? A big reason is the fixture list. West Ham have already played Arsenal (A), Wolves (H), Leicester (A), Tottenham (A), Man City (H) & Liverpool (A). They played Man United (H) next.

8.8 - the average league position of West Ham's opponents so far. That is the hardest start across all PL sides.

Note: I used the 2019/20 Premier League table for this because I feel it is a more accurate representation. Replaced the 3 relegated sides with the 3 promoted ones.

If we used the 2020/21 Premier League table instead, the average league position of all of West Ham's opponents would be 9.9 - the 6th hardest start to the season.

Newcastle have the hardest start with 8.9 & Chelsea the easiest with 11.9.

Another reason the start is so impressive is the difficult situation at the club in the summer. Having had a disappointing 16th place finish in 2019/20, matters were made worse when Grady Diangana was sold - a talented young winger who had been at the club since the age of 12.

The fans, understandably, were furious with the sale. But the frustration wasn’t limited to them. Club captain and legend Mark Noble spoke out against the transfer publicly. Jack Wilshere too had something to say on Diangana’s Instagram post thanking West Ham.

Anyway, moving on to events on the pitch - West Ham are 5th, above the likes of Man United, Man City (both have a game in hand) & Arsenal. They are only 1 point off a CL spot and 4 points off top spot.

Offensively, they have scored 17 goals so far - outscored only by 7 sides: Liverpool (22), Chelsea (22), Tottenham (21), Aston Villa (20), Leicester (19), Southampton (19) & Everton (19).

So, West Ham are doing decently well offensively.

West Ham have conceded 11 goals. That is the (joint) third best record in the league so far - only Tottenham (9) & Chelsea (10) have let in fewer goals. Both Man City & Wolves have conceded 11 too.

So they are doing even better defensively, at least relative to the league.

Goalkeeper Fabianski has kept 4 clean sheets in 10 games. That is the joint 2nd best record - bettered only by Chelsea's Mendy with 5.

(Wolves's Patricio, Tottenham's Lloris, Leeds's Meslier, Southampton's McCarthy & Villa's Martinez all have 4 clean sheets too.)

West Ham’s top scorer is Jarrod Bowen with 4 goals. They also have 8 distinct goal scorers for their 17 goals so far. This gives them a healthy ratio for goals scored: distinct scorers, implying they have multiple sources for goalscoring & are not over-reliant on a single player.

Now, let’s quickly look at the statistical side of things. If you’re unfamiliar with the concept of xG (expected goals), I would suggest you give this article (not mine) a read.

https://www.thepunterspage.com/expected-goals-explained/

It explains the concept very well & contains a couple of nice videos too.

xGA (expected goals allowed) is nothing but your opponent’s cumulative xG against you. xPTs (expected points) tries calculating your expected points using your xG & xGA. Now that we have this, let’s look at this table below. Credits: @UnderstatXG

West Ham’s xG is 14.16. However, they have scored 17, which means they are outperforming their xG by 2.84 goals.

Similarly, their xGA is 12.99 but they’ve only conceded 11, meaning they are outperforming their xGA by 1.99.

As a result, they’re 3.24 points above their xPTs too

So are they getting lucky? Not at all. Firstly, these stats, while good indicators, don’t tell the whole story. It is common for sides to over/under perform these stats. In fact, 3 other sides are overperforming their xPTs by even bigger margins (Tottenham, Southampton & Wolves).

And I think I have another explanation to why West Ham have outperformed these metrics.

West Ham have not been in many losing positions this season. They’ve only been behind in 4 games - Newcastle (~34 mins), Arsenal (~25 mins), Tottenham (~90 mins) & Liverpool (~5 mins).

They have been level or ahead most of the time. This means they have often not had the need to attack - explaining the low xG. Also, being in front means you can sit back - something that will increase your xGA as the opposition keep probing in hopes of an equalizer (or a winner)

Okay, enough about how good West Ham have been. Let’s now take a look at some of the reasons explaining why.

They finished 16th last season having escaped relegation very late. There was a negative atmosphere around the club. What changed?

For what it is worth, I don’t think West Ham last season were representative of a side that finished 16th. They often looked & played better than their points tally showed them to be. However, I am not going to get into that as the thread is about West Ham this season.

So tactically, Moyes moved from a 4 at the back to a 5-4-1. In the words of a West Ham fan - “5 at the back has given us more stability at the back. In short, more confidence at the back has enabled us to go forward”. This is an assessment I am completely in agreement with.

This doesn't mean that Moyes is a defensive manager. West Ham attack when they need to. Against Villa in their most recent game, Moyes boldly brought on winger Benrahma for wing-back Masuaku at half time with the score level. West Ham scored within 30 seconds of the restart!

So what does their best XI look like? Something like this - a back 5 of (L->R) Masuaku, Cresswell, Ogbonna, Balbuena & Coufal. A midfield pivot of Soucek & Rice is behind a front 3 consisting of Fornals, Antonio & Bowen.

Fabianski is one of the best & most underrated keepers in the league. He is joint second for clean sheets (big reason being the defense itself). He is joint 8th in shots saved (30) & 6th in save percentage (72.2%). Credits: @fbref

Cresswell is a full back converted to centre back who has also grabbed 3 assists along the way & my favourite (FPL may have had something to do with this). Ogbonna & Balbuena are solid defenders. Coufal offers stability defensively & Masuaku is a skilled attacking wing back.

Rice & Soucek as a midfield pivot offer a nice balance - Soucek is a box to box midfielder who contributes on all areas of the ground whereas Rice sits in front of defense - mopping everything up and keeping the play ticking.

he front 3 form a very good counterattacking unit. Fornals is creative & hardworking, Bowen is a creative winger who likes to drift inside & Antonio is a powerful, quick striker who is a little bit of everything.

Another reason West Ham have done well is the recruitment. In just the last year, they have signed Bowen, Soucek, Coufal & Benrahma. The first 3 have become certain starters whereas Benrahma, still very new, has 2 assists in just 63 minutes of action! Credit: @Transfermarkt

Player of the season so far? Very hard to say - a good indicator of how well West Ham are doing is how difficult it is to select a player of the season so far for them. I am leaning towards Cresswell but there are multiple correct answers here.

Goal of the season so far? Well, no multiple correct answers here - Manuel Lanzini vs Tottenham. Nothing like overturning a 3 goal deficit in an astonishing 12 minute comeback with a goal of the season contender against a rival.

Goal at 1:32.

Performance of the season? Hard to pick with multiple good results but I think it can be narrowed down to two: 4-0 win over Wolves & 0-3 win over Leicester. I’m going with the latter because it was away from home & against slightly better opposition.

We are nearing the thread's end - West Ham have been phenomenal. In this special season, we have also seen the alter ego of David Moyes - Zoom Moyes, a manager with a 100% league record. In all seriousness, I am glad he recovered from Covid-19 & has carried on much like he left.

Another person whose absence hasn’t been felt is Michail Antonio. Considered by many as West Ham’s best player, his injury threatened to hurt their good start but players, most notably Haller, have stepped up to make sure it wasn’t the case.

West Ham United play Man United at home on Sunday for yet another big test. A win for West Ham can take them up all the way to third! It should be a great game and no result should come as a surprise.

I hope you liked the thread. I strongly appreciate any feedback/criticism/suggestions. Also, I request you to follow me for more such content. I am taking follower requests on my pinned tweet! Have a great day/night. Stay safe!

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