Thread by @sean_forman, It's that time of year again. This is year #2 that I've [...]

It's that time of year again. This is year #2 that I've had a HOF ballot. My reasoning this year won't be as extensive as last year. You can read it here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1197935903769055232.html?refreshed=yes

Note that I usually delete tweets after awhile, so that thread and this one may disappear.

Thread by @sean_forman: As a first cut for consideration, I'll probably draw the line at 40+ WAR....

Thread by @sean_forman: As a first cut for consideration, I'll probably draw the line at 40+ WAR. That gives you 17. Bonds, Clemens, Schillin, Jeter, Rolen, Ramirez, Jones, Helton, Sheffield,...

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1197935903769055232.html?refreshed=yes

the starting point for me is this group of players.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2021.shtml

As w/ last year, re: accused/confirmed PED users, my POV is

1) If the HOF or MLB doesn't want me to vote for those players, don't include them on the ballot.
2) I have a hard time assuming that we can divide players into clean or dirty based on public info, so I choose not to.

If you disagree, I don't begrudge you that viewpoint. Also, I won't argue about it. I spent fifteen years arguing this on http://rec.sport.baseball and the baseball think factory, so you literally can not make an argument I haven't heard before.

Last year, I didn't vote for Schilling. I've decided not to again this year. Given his past comments on Muslims & the LGTBQ community, I will not support giving him a broader platform. I see his statements as being over a line I can implicitly support.

Barry Bonds gets my vote.

Roger Clemens gets my vote.

Again, I fleshed out a lot of these cases more in the thread referenced above. I'm not going to rehash much.

Scott Rolen would be a perfectly average HOF 3Bman and gets my vote. Ditto for Manny Ramirez in the outfield and Todd Helton at first base. That brings me to five.

Which brings me to Andruw Jones. HOW THE HELL does a CFer with ten gold gloves and a claim to being the greatest Def CF of all-time along with 434 Home Runs only get 20% of the vote? & and a guy with a .688 OPS gets 50%.

This makes me feel like a failure. Jones is #6.

You can also probably guess that Vizquel is a hard no for me. For Venezuelan fans of B-R. I'm sorry, but he didn't meet the threshold for me. I just wish I could have voted for Johan Santana, a very comparable case to Koufax.

Billy Wagner is another hard no for me. I don't put a premium on relievers except maybe for exceptional postseason dominance. Rivera might be the only reliever I would support tbh.

WAR already includes a leverage bump for high-leverage relievers and Wagner only reaches 28 WAR along with $93m in earnings. I believe and MLB GM's believed that Billy Wagner, Derek Lowe, Jason Schmidt, Kevin Millwood and Dan Haren were all about equally valuable players.

Torii Hunter was a great player, but not above the line for me. Thank you for your great career, Torii.

I'm a big hall guy, perhaps in response to those who would vote for no one, but I tend to resist nostalgic arguments that players are "worse" now or not as great, so I'll vote for ten. That leaves four votes out of this group.

Here are the four batters against each other, this is a @stathead link that allows you to compare them all on a single page. I've sorted this by 162WL% which estimates what a team of avg players w/ this player would finish for the seasons they played

https://stathead.com/tiny/ldB1B

How on earth do you separate these guys?
Kent, MVP, and great bat for MI position, 9537 PA, 2xT10 WAR
Sheff, 561 Rbat, -195 Rfld, 4x T10 WAR
Abreu, VG across board, > TOB than Gwynn, 5x T10 WAR
Sosa, 609 HR, +86Rfld?!, 3x T10 WAR.

Abreu, Sheff, Sosa, Kent?
vote strategic?

Same with the pitchers. They are so close to each other.

@stathead link https://stathead.com/tiny/488DE

Hudson best RA, but easier opposition, park and best defense behind him.
Buehrle toughest park & worst defense (barely) behind him.
Petite highest RA, most IP (by < 200).
Could make argument with postseason, but that's a team argument imo. Pettitte no CG's (worst whip).

Who had the best peak seasons? Take all three & rank their seasons by WAR. Here are ranks for seasons with 2+ WAR.

AP #1 is best, but TH has 8 seasons > AP's 4th best.
AP 1-3 better than MB, but MB has 9 seasons > AP's 4th best.

How about how they ranked for their teams?

Using our championship WPA added, Hudson added more to championship drives. Though timing of performances are hugely relevant to this stat, so I discount it a bit. https://twitter.com/baseballtwit/status/1334912274411233281

https://twitter.com/baseballtwit/status/1334912274411233281

I did not realize that AP was the best player on a WS champ in 1996. MB same in 2005. TH best on 96 wins A's team.

Pitch WAR T10s (t3s)
TH 7 (1)
AP 3 (2)
MB 6 (1)

Literally can't separate the three of them.

Just a thought here, but look at the Ps & Hs inducted s. 2000. 9 SPs, 42 hitters, 6 RPs. That's 26% of player inductions are Ps and just 9 SPs. We divide WAR up 40% pitching and 60% defense and batting which suggests 22 pitchers out of 57.

So we've got 7 players.
Abreu, Kent, Sheff, Sosa, Hudson, Buehrle, Pettitte.
modern SPs are almost certainly underrepresented in HOF. Abreu barely scraped by last year.

My last 4 are Abreu, Pettitte, Hudson and Buehrle.
& I'd definitely add Sheffield and Sosa if possible.

Cc @NotMrTibbs

Put me on blast.

Latest Threads Unrolled: