Read on Twitter
Middle East Watchers: The Trump Administration will likely designate the Houthis in Yemen as a foreign terrorist organization in the coming weeks. Their goal is to weaken the Houthis, weaken Iran, strengthen Saudi Arabia, and bolster the exiled Yemen government. /1
The pending FTO designation will almost certainly fail to achieve these aims.
As I noted in earlier tweets, designating the Houthis as a FTO will likely cause grave harm to millions of Yemeni people already suffering from the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. /2
As I noted in earlier tweets, designating the Houthis as a FTO will likely cause grave harm to millions of Yemeni people already suffering from the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. /2
Also, as I described, the consequence of a FTO designation of the Houthis is distinct from similar designations of Hamas and Hezbollah. /3
The economic and humanitarian situation is completely different in the West Bank, where Hamas is underground, in Gaza where Hamas is the autocratic governing authority, and in Lebanon where Hezbollah controls portions of the government. /4
The Houthis maintain unchallenged control over 70-80% of the Yemeni population.
If the Houthis are designated as an FTO, then the Houthis and Iran will be the winners in Yemen and beyond. Saudi, the official Yemen government and the Yemeni people will lose. Here’s why: /5
If the Houthis are designated as an FTO, then the Houthis and Iran will be the winners in Yemen and beyond. Saudi, the official Yemen government and the Yemeni people will lose. Here’s why: /5
Houthis: The Houthis are primarily responsible for untold suffering of millions. They are a terror organization antithetical to US interests, Yemen economic development, and regional peace. /6
They are not, however, direct agents or proxies of Iran; rather they use Iranian assistance to advance their specific goals.
The Houthis have effectively defeated the Yemen government and the Saudi Arabian led coalition in Yemen. /7
The Houthis have effectively defeated the Yemen government and the Saudi Arabian led coalition in Yemen. /7
Once a ragtag militia, the Houthis have become increasingly strong and militarily capable. They have seized and controlled Saudi territory at times, they have launched rocket attacks against major Saudi cities, and are currently threatening the key Yemeni city of Marib. /8
For many years now, the Saudis have been unable to stop Iranian assistance to the Houthis or the Houthi relentless march to control Yemen.
A FTO designation would only strengthen the Iranian-Houthi relationship and cut off any channels outside of Iran. /9
A FTO designation would only strengthen the Iranian-Houthi relationship and cut off any channels outside of Iran. /9
The Houthis in fact would likely increase use of Iranian assets against its adversaries in Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
The theory of FTO designation is that economic pressure will yield positive political change. Arguably the people could rise up and overthrow the Houthis. /10
The theory of FTO designation is that economic pressure will yield positive political change. Arguably the people could rise up and overthrow the Houthis. /10
But, regional examples suggest otherwise.
Hamas was designated as a FTO in 1997, since then they have seized Gaza and launched three wars against Israel. Hamas is stronger today than in 1997. /11
Hamas was designated as a FTO in 1997, since then they have seized Gaza and launched three wars against Israel. Hamas is stronger today than in 1997. /11
Hezbollah was designated as an FTO in 1997, since then they have gained control of parts of the Lebanese government, conduct a regional and international terror foreign policy (including in Syria and Yemen), and launched a war against Israel in 2006. /12
They are by far more influential and stronger now than they were in 1997.
There is little analysis to suggest that an FTO designation of the Houthis will have any material effect on the movement; and in fact they simply may consolidate power, align more closely with Iran, /13
There is little analysis to suggest that an FTO designation of the Houthis will have any material effect on the movement; and in fact they simply may consolidate power, align more closely with Iran, /13
and gain further military capability as seen with Hamas and Hezbollah.
Yemen Government: The official Yemen government is highly corrupt, incompetent, and control almost nothing in Yemen. /14
Yemen Government: The official Yemen government is highly corrupt, incompetent, and control almost nothing in Yemen. /14
A Houthi FTO designation will not change the balance of power, and if anything will make the official government appear more anemic as it loses more territory to the Houthis. /15
Despite the unrequited desire of the international community, the Yemeni government is simply not a realistic counterweight to the Houthis. /16
Iran: The clerics in Tehran are influential in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. This influence has grown over the past two decades. Their goal in Yemen is to develop the Houthis into a junior varsity Hezbollah and challenge Saudi Arabia on its southern flank. /17
The FTO designation likely accelerates the Houthi trajectory and further suspends any hope of a Yemen-wide solution to the overlapping civil wars. /18
Saudi Arabia: Despite a brutal war effort, the Saudi have demonstrated no capability to block the Houthis and re-install the Yemen government in Sana’a. Simply, the Houthis are stronger, the government is weaker, and the Saudis are exhausted. /19
A closer Houthi-Iranian alignment, (particularly with no other channels for the Houthis) means that the Saudi southern border will remain unstable for the indefinite future. /20
The Saudis will have millions of desperate people on the brink of famine and an empowered Houthi militia that will have little to lose on a long, remote, and unchecked border. The Houthis bear little cost in their effort to destabilize the Saudis. /21
Just as Hamas and Hezbollah can launch wars against their neighbor Israel, so too can the Houthis against Saudi with increasing capability. /22
Yemeni people: The millions of innocent people, as usual, will suffer; they will continue to bear the biggest brunt of the unending war. The FTO designation likely accelerates this suffering. /23
Bottom Line: The FTO designation is aimed to block material support to terror organizations. The Trump admin is rushing a slipshod designation, w/o adequate humanitarian/economic exceptions, in an effort to undermine the Houthis/challenge Iran. /24
The results almost certainly will backfire. The Houthis and Iranians will be stronger, the Yemen government and the Saudis will be weaker. And millions of people will suffer. This is not an American foreign policy that serves US national and security interests. End
