THREAD: So it was clear we were badly lacking in the final third v Stoke, but what do the numbers say? Well, we posted 0.45 expected goals - half our average xG per game for the season - and had as few shots (8) as in any game bar Luton (5). #Chairboys

We've had games where we've really threatened (Birmingham, Watford, Millwall and - the one that absolutely should've been a win - Rotherham), but 13.8 xG in all has us third bottom in that respect. That's not awful in itself; the problem is we've only scored 7 goals (1 own goal).

By this stage of the season (15 games in), we can reasonably put that down to more than good goalkeeping and last-ditch defending, unfortunate deflections etc. Those factors play a part, but we are missing good chances (Horgan & Charles v Rotherham, Bayo v Watford & Forest).

In short, we've scored half as many goals as would be expected based on the chances we've created. In even simpler terms, take out the own goal and, on average, we score with every 24th shot - which, at our rate of shooting (9.7 shots/game), effectively = 1 goal every 2.5 games.

We have really improved at the back and made ourselves hard to beat, and that’s always going to give us a chance, but the fact is we’ve still only scored 7 goals in 15 games - the joint fewest in the league with Derby. Graph below shows how our games have generally tightened up.

We only average 0.92 xG/game, which means we can’t afford to be wasteful - but, at the moment, we are being. Take Stewart’s late chance v Stoke, for example. Those chances have to go in or we have to become more creative - preferably both. But how can we do that?

This chart compares expected goals and expected assists (essentially, expected assists quantifies creativity based on the likelihood that a pass becomes an assist). Fred has been our most creative outlet, Kashket has the highest xG + xA per 90 (0.44), and Bayo is going well too.

The thing is, Fred isn’t even playing at his best right, so there’s promise there if we can get him to reach the heights we know he can - but there’s also an overreliance on him to provide.

Horgan getting into good positions consistently (he tends to come into games quite late and is arguably hindered by his defensive work rate) would ease the overreliance and perhaps give Fred a lift. Need what we saw from Horgan in 2nd half v Stoke over the full course of games.

Perhaps that hints at a general problem though: Maybe we need to be more assertive offensively from the off, braver even. There was a sense v Brentford and Huddersfield that we were content just to not lose. We could do more without going gung-ho and leaving ourselves exposed.

And for all the talk of needing an identity without Bayo, we need to create more *with* him - which might entail mixing things up a bit. We might get that identity when Ikpeazu’s fit anyway - or we could look at bringing a target man in on loan in January.

Ultimately, we need to create more with the players we’ve got on a more consistent basis and become more clinical. We won't start blowing teams away, but we’re not likely to get the kind of striker who’d really take advantage of the generally low quality chances we create.