1/21. Dec 05 to Dec 11 -
#COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries with risk maps
Data: @ECDC_EU or https://coronavirus.jhu.edu  or https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus 

Dashboard: https://renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epidemic-Forecasting/_w_5f9d45a0/_w_8da5e02a/?tab=world_map

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/21. Ireland has landed in its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.86), and is foreseen to remain in it, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown from Oct 21, for 6 weeks.

3/21 - Belgium is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, and if this pace is maintained (R-eff=0.76), will be close to reach it by the end of next week. Decrease in mortality still at very high levels, in the 7 upcoming days.

4/21. France is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, and if this pace is maintained (R-eff=0.77), will be close to reach it by the end of next week. Decrease in mortality, still at very high levels, for the 7 upcoming days
Lockdown from Oct 29,for 1 month

5/21. The UK is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.85), at medium level of activity, and plateauing at very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown-ended in Wale. In England from Nov 05 for 1 month.

6/21. Switzerland is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.95), remaining at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
More details:
https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1334435472706244612?s=20
Ease of lockdown in Romandie, tightening in German-speaking cantons.

7/21. The Netherlands is worryingly plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.99), remaining at high levels, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Partial lockdown from Nov 03 up to 2 weeks.

8/21. Italy is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.82), at high level of activity, plateauing at alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown in Lombardy, Piedmont/Valle d’Aosta, Calabria from Nov 05 for 2 wks.

9/21. Germany does not succeed to take over control of its #COVID19 second wave (R-eff=0.98), remaining at high levels of activity, with high to very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Soft lockdown from Nov 02; with tightening of restrictions from Nov 26 up to Dec. 20.

10/21. Finland is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.14), at medium levels , with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

11/21. Morocco has reached the peak of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.95), plateauing at medium levels of activity, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

12/21. South Africa will be leaving slowly its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=1.09), with medium levels of mortality, for the 7 upcoming days.

13/21. Israel will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.18), at medium levels, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

14/21. Russia will continue to see its incidence of #COVID19 new cases rising at low pace (R-eff=1.06) but at high level of activity, with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
The country has launched its vaccination campaign with Spoutnik V.

15/21. Japan, remains under pressure of seasonal force with rise in its #COVID19 new cases (R-eff=1.07), however the country will remain in its safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Insights on https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1328471487003680770?s=20
Including backward tracing strategy

16/21. South Korea, is facing strong seasonal pressure from the virus (R-eff=1.18), but is still foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone (with<670 cases/day), and very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

17/21. Canada does not succeed to take over control of its #COVID19 second wave, rising at medium levels (R-eff=1.09), with increasing high level of mortality, for 7 more days.
https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1333333291018178561?s=20
Forecast for 4 provinces and map are available in the embedded thread.

18/21. The USA hit another record in its #COVID19 new case, although foreseen to rise at slow pace (R-eff=1.03), with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1333343973742665728?s=20
Forecast for 7 states and map available in the embedded thread

19/21. Mexico will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.14), at medium level, plateauing at high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

20/21. Brazil will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.14), at high levels, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

21/21. Australia and New Zealand have successfully controlled their winter #COVID19 epidemic wave. They will remain both within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, for 7 more days.

22/21 -
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mort. < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mort. < 0.20
0.20 < High mort. < 0.50
Very high mort. > 0.50
Alarming mort. > 1.0

23/21 -
Level of activity = low level = safety zone
4.3 < Medium level < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100
Other countries: read @KristenN_06 and @elisa_manetti