The question to grapple w/ is how to create a pathway to lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey. The goal of sanctions is to lift them, in return for a change in behavior. The goal as expressed in the NDAA is for TR to “give up” its system and not replace it with any RU-origin successor

There is on-going discussion between RU-TR on a second battalion, presumably with discussion focused now on some sort of local work share. This would be extremely problematic and if either side wants to get out of this mess, should be a focus of US-TR discussions about this issue

Also have the issue of financing: We cannot wish away the fact that Turkey is on the hook to pay for the S-400 battalion it already has, so there is the issue of money for a system the US has now said Ankara has to discard. It is a lot of money, but the bill hasn’t come fully due

Then there is the issue of replacement: If Ankara were to purchase a replacement system (its own choice), it has two options: European or US — and the US option entails Congressional sign off on export (which would certainly be linked to hard guarantees on the S-400).

The SAMP/T does make sense for Turkey, but France is involved here and, well, Franco-Turkish relations are not exactly great. See: East Med + Libya.

I worry that the “kick the can down the road” approach has run out of road. We are at a place where Turkey is under Arms Embargo, risks EU sanctions, will be placed under US sanctions, and the pathway to begin to “thaw” is arduous. This doesnt even begin to grapple with F-35

This is going to be a test of the transactional approach many of us have called for: What is Ankara prepared to give up to get to “yes” and what will Washington accept in return. Ive made my argument for a way to monitor non-use of S-400. I have yet to see anything else:

https://warontherocks.com/2020/08/how-americas-experience-with-pakistan-can-help-it-deal-with-turkey/

TL: Monitor non-deployment with sat imagery, share imagery through a formalized process, have once a year inspections at the deployment site, unlock exports for F-16 upgrades.

This is transactional. If X, then Y. Will Ankara say yes, probably not.

Do I see another way, not really. Biden is going to have to “make the case” for Turkey to lift these. He will have to have a case to make, and geography and the terms of “reiset” are not good enough.