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AZ: Deep Dive
The Great State of ArizonaThis state has been the center of the controversy probably longer than any of the others, and from the get-go. If we study our median this state has the the lowest expectation of a Biden win at 0.06%. (Really nothing.)
Here is a summary of the vote count to present, just so we have a frame of reference:
Trump: 1,663,178
Biden: 1,673,340
Third: 50,810
Total: 3,387,328
Trump is losing by 10,162 votes.
The lead of course is very SMALL. In the margin of error for most things, and far from
Trump: 1,663,178
Biden: 1,673,340
Third: 50,810
Total: 3,387,328
Trump is losing by 10,162 votes.
The lead of course is very SMALL. In the margin of error for most things, and far from
decisive.
Our chart begins ~11pm EST time, and literally half the votes in the state are dumped into the chart in 5 minutes. Trump doesn't fare too bad on this dump considering he's winning every single pile of votes on this section of the chart. (EVERY ONE) Biden only gets a
Our chart begins ~11pm EST time, and literally half the votes in the state are dumped into the chart in 5 minutes. Trump doesn't fare too bad on this dump considering he's winning every single pile of votes on this section of the chart. (EVERY ONE) Biden only gets a
small 17.5% lead off this data point, and he slowly starts losing it all on the rest the chart. Notable, of course, is the missing 3rd party stealing action. I guess they like them here!
Oops, never mind. Carrying forward from our mega-dump we got about 250k votes getting stolen from 3rd party here to pump Biden. They're still counting these up weeks out. Trump still wins almost every plot on the page here even with that steal --- the amount taken from 3rd here
looks, perfectly calibrated to maintain Biden's initial lead. It's so symmetrical and non-organic. IMHO, the only reason Trump is 'higher' here is because they don't feel any need for him not to be. They could have cheated more to push Biden to tie or dominate.
Verdict: It goes without saying that I don't think any state in the union can count half their votes in 5 mins. The first few hours of the chart look OK then our second plot looks like an, 'Oh Shit!", moment. They start 3rd party stealing to maintain leads in an algorithmic
manner. (as if a computer is figuring out exactly what % Biden needs, and spreading this to the future votes.) Without this obvious anomaly Trump would win AZ easily. We'll have to rule it cheated. Biden wouldn't have the ~10k lead without it.
AZ: Guilty.
AZ: Guilty.
