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1/ @TheEconomist Leaders are wrong in thinking: 'Were #Biden to jump back into the nuclear deal quickly, it would mean lifting the sharpest sanctions & giving up much of this leverage.'
This is just reiterated version of #Trump's failed max pressure logic. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/12/05/joe-biden-should-drive-a-hard-bargain-with-iran
This is just reiterated version of #Trump's failed max pressure logic. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/12/05/joe-biden-should-drive-a-hard-bargain-with-iran
2/ @TheEconomist misses crucial points in describing 'flaws' in #JCPOA
-nuclear deal=nuclear' issues
-Pre 2015 US/E3 pushed for missiles to be included & China/Russia/Iran drew red lines
-You can't resolve regional issues without GCC players; JCPOA is led by world nuclear powers
-nuclear deal=nuclear' issues
-Pre 2015 US/E3 pushed for missiles to be included & China/Russia/Iran drew red lines
-You can't resolve regional issues without GCC players; JCPOA is led by world nuclear powers
3/Reason why 'anti- #Iran axis is growing bolder' is not because of Iran's nuclear program as piece suggests:
-Main trigger was in 2015: prospect of opening between West-Iran/sanctions easing
-For Israel nuclear issue priority; whereas for Saudi/UAE regional power balance key
-Main trigger was in 2015: prospect of opening between West-Iran/sanctions easing
-For Israel nuclear issue priority; whereas for Saudi/UAE regional power balance key
4/ @TheEconomist correctly flags #Iran's domestic factional 'tug-of-war' as consequence of max pressure.
But this internal clash over if Tehran should negotiate further with the US will only lean towards hardline position if #Biden tries to corner Iran further from get-go.
But this internal clash over if Tehran should negotiate further with the US will only lean towards hardline position if #Biden tries to corner Iran further from get-go.
5/ #Trump era sanctions are not 'leverage' for further talks with Iran.
#Biden needs to convince Iran's leadership that deals with US = durable & conducted in good faith.
If Biden holds back sanctions easing in hope of 'bigger deal' - expect escalation cycle to continue.
#Biden needs to convince Iran's leadership that deals with US = durable & conducted in good faith.
If Biden holds back sanctions easing in hope of 'bigger deal' - expect escalation cycle to continue.
6/ @TheEconomist Leaders piece gets the FACTS WRONG in asserting #JCPOA 'expires over next decade'.
Some restrictions continue till 2040, other in perpetuity.
See explainer from @AliVaez: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2017-10-03/iranian-nuclear-deals-sunset-clauses
Some restrictions continue till 2040, other in perpetuity.
See explainer from @AliVaez: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2017-10-03/iranian-nuclear-deals-sunset-clauses
7/ @TheEconomist suggests 'Iran’s leaders appear open to suggestion' to extend original accord without US 1st fulfilling #JCPOA.
But no indication of this in public/private statements by #Iran who repeatedly rule out renegotiating JCPOA
See Zarif yesterday https://med.ispionline.it/agenda/dialogue-with-mohammad-javad-zarif/
But no indication of this in public/private statements by #Iran who repeatedly rule out renegotiating JCPOA
See Zarif yesterday https://med.ispionline.it/agenda/dialogue-with-mohammad-javad-zarif/
8/ If E3 & incoming #Biden admin serious about stabilising nuclear file & hope to build out further diplomacy with #Iran on other contentious issues they must 1st pave way for clean mutual return to #JCPOA commitments by Tehran & DC
See possible roadmap: http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/iez/16573.pdf
See possible roadmap: http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/iez/16573.pdf