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In our latest work, we model the decarbonisation of the sector-coupled European energy system using uninterrupted hourly modelling, network interconnections and myopic approach. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20015-4 A summary of the paper published in @NatureComms with @nworbmot in this thread
If we want to meet the Paris agreement, there is a maximum of CO2 that we can emit (carbon budget). We estimate the percentage of those emissions that corresponds to Europe and ask the question: What would be the best way of using that carbon budget?
We could follow an Early and Steady path (
), start reducing emissions today and keep steady until 2050. Or we could follow a Late and Rapid path (
) and delay climate action. This would deplete our carbon budget and require much fast decarbonisation later.
), start reducing emissions today and keep steady until 2050. Or we could follow a Late and Rapid path () and delay climate action. This would deplete our carbon budget and require much fast decarbonisation later.
We found that the Early and Steady path () would be more cost-effective. So, it is better to be ambitious in the short term. Solar photovoltaic, onshore, and offshore wind can become the cornerstone of a fully decarbonised energy system.
) would be more cost-effective. So, it is better to be ambitious in the short term. Solar photovoltaic, onshore, and offshore wind can become the cornerstone of a fully decarbonised energy system.
Both paths require a massive deployment of wind and solar PV during the next 30 years. The required installation rates are similar to historical maxima making the transition challenging, yet possible! (Graph shows what happened in the past and what needs to happen in the future)
CO2 prices around 400€/tCO2 will be required to achieve full decarbonisation. It is important to realize that the economical co-benefits of reducing CO2 for human health and agriculture are estimated in hundreds of €/tCO2
Key to the results is the use of uninterrupted hourly resolution because it unveils the different time scales to balance renewables and demand, as well as the operation of the system during a cold spell (winter week with low wind/solar and high demand)
Batteries and pumped hydro storage fluctuate every day balancing solar generation, H2 storage balances wind synoptic fluctuations, water pits charge/discharge in summer/winter compensating the seasonal variation in heating demand (much more pronounced than in electricity demand)
More results: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20015-4
Input data: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4010644
Model: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4014807
Output data: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4010644
Input data: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4010644
Model: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4014807
Output data: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4010644
