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Brexit & the City: Axel Weber AT @UBS was right to say that London will remain the main European financial centre after Brexit - but the shift in staffing at UBS in Europe tells an intriguing story. A few quick thoughts 1/11 https://www.ft.com/content/bdbe701d-53fa-41e6-9de3-2a49f06d31a7
First, while he was right about London, I’m not sure anyone has ever seriously argued that London won’t be the main financial centre in Europe on the other side of Brexit, but let’s put that aside 2/11
He’s also right that headline job moves from London to the EU27 will be lower than initially expected: UBS had thought up to 1,000 jobs but now thinks more like 250. In the short term, 250 to 500 jobs for a big firm sounds about right depending on their headcount in the EU 3/11
But hang on, the article also said that the number of staff at UBS in the UK had only increased by a few hundred between 2015 and 2019 - yet in the EU27 headcount had increased by more than 2,000. So what’s going on? 4/11
In 2015, UBS employed 5,373 staff in the UK and 4,957 in the EU27. That’s a 52% / 48% split (nice touch...)
By the end of 2019, it had added 331 staff (+6%) in the UK; and 2,091 people in the EU27 (+42%) taking the UK to 5,704 and EU27 to 7,048.
That’s a 45% / 55% split. 5/11
By the end of 2019, it had added 331 staff (+6%) in the UK; and 2,091 people in the EU27 (+42%) taking the UK to 5,704 and EU27 to 7,048.
That’s a 45% / 55% split. 5/11
A small number of this change is relocations from the UK to EU27, and a small number will be incremental growth in its EU27 business. But the *big* change is a massive increase in support staff at its ‘Business Solutions Centres’ in Poland. 6/11
Back in 2015 the @FT said that UBS had 2,500 staff in Krakow https://www.ft.com/content/1df9e49c-a153-11e4-8d19-00144feab7de.
That’s a big increase from the 1,300 UBS said it had in Poland at the end of 2014 https://uk.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idUSKBN0LJ0BD20150215 7/11
That’s a big increase from the 1,300 UBS said it had in Poland at the end of 2014 https://uk.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idUSKBN0LJ0BD20150215 7/11
By 2019 UBS had more than 5,000 people in Krakow (3,600) and Wroclaw (1,400+) https://www.ubs.com/global/en/media/display-page-ndp/en-20190812-krakow.html 8/11
So the majority of the shift in balance in headcount between the UK and EU27 at @UBS is the big increase in support staff in Poland. It’s a similar story at firms like Credit Suisse, RBS, BNY Mellon and State Street. 9/11
The lesson is that banks & asset managers will aim to keep as many front office staff in the UK as possible and the number of people moving from London to the EU will be relatively low. Firms will move what they need to move and not a single person more 10/11
But the number of new support jobs in the EU will continue to grow – and many of these will be jobs that might previously have been in London, Bournemouth, Birmingham, Manchester or Belfast. Brexit might again be the occasion but not necessarily the cause of this rebalancing ENDS
