Good @TheEconomist rehashing of debate on incoming #Biden admin's #JCPOA policy b/w those calling for "swift re-entry" versus "smart pressure" (using #Trump "maximum pressure" leverage).

Some of its assumptions need to be teased out and questioned. 1/ https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/12/05/joe-biden-wants-to-re-enter-the-nuclear-deal-with-iran
Joe Biden wants to re-enter the nuclear deal with Iran

Sounds simple, but he faces some big obstacles

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/12/05/joe-biden-wants-to-re-enter-the-nuclear-deal-with-iran
"Smart pressure" assumption 01: IRI can't take more economic pressure and must make big concessions on nukes, missiles and proxies.

As others note econ outlook is improving. With low oil prices not clear sanctions-relief is worth trading away security. 2/ https://twitter.com/yarbatman/status/1334639768253022208?s=20
"Smart pressure" assumption 02: #Biden admin can leverage #Trump "maximum pressure" cost-free.

IRI has largely held to "strategic patience". With prospect of "swift re-entry" gone, it can enhance its own leverage through moves in the nuclear, missile and proxy areas. 3/
"Smart pressure" assumption 03: It makes sense for IRI to make #JCPOA+ deal right away without #Biden effort to rebuild *some* trust.

Why should IRI make long-term concessions on nukes, missiles and proxies when P5+1 can't ensure benefits of any deal beyond next four years? 4/4
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