AWS quietly destroys the entire multi-cloud industry with multi-cloud ... so long CNCF, thanks for all the fish - https://aws.amazon.com/eks/eks-anywhere/
... queue endless arguments of
X : It's not multi-cloud if it's all AWS
Me : EKS on Azure?
X : No, no, that can't be multi-cloud.
Still, I suspect there's probably a good decade to get some value out of CNCF ... plenty of Aston Martins, lucrative contracts, conferences and G&Ts to go around ... see OpenStack ...
... during which time AWS will take over the world with serverless. The battle in that space is almost over ... AWS 1st by a mile, MSFT and Alibaba fight it out over 2nd ... GooG a distant but respectable 4th ... everyone else, at the bottom of the cliff.
If you didn't notice that quiet bombshell that 50% of AWS new services are built on serverless (Lambda etc) then pay more attention next time. Can't be long until conversational programming kicks in. Give it a few more years. Meet Alexa, your new developer and operations manager.
X : What is conversational programming?
Me : The future. Just map it and you'll see.
X : I don't understand your maps.
Me : Ok. Here's the video / narrative form of it, thank @simalexan - https://twitter.com/swardley/status/1283068366232662026
X : Is that a mockup?
Me : No, it's a very real and working system. Has been for a couple of years. This is where we're going.
X : MSFT and Alibaba compete for 2nd?
Me : Yep, at this moment. Are you going to underestimate Alibaba?
X : Why?
Me : It's common. The real battle will be AWS vs Alibaba for the future - https://twitter.com/swardley/status/924412356930699269 ... Alibaba has the longer term advantage at the moment.
X : How does Alibaba have a longer term advantage?
Me : Chinese Gov, very good strategic players. In the West we have numpties with no clue about nation state competition or awareness going "digtal sovereignty", blah, blah, break up Amazon to save old vendors etc. GAIA-X ... lol.
X : Misdirection?
Me : You mean "let us all fight over these scraps whilst we help ourselves to the future"?
X : Yes
Me : Of course. The serverless battle is almost over.
X : How do you know when it is finally over?
Me : Six months before Oracle announces they will win the space.
X : Turns out whatever happens is what the map meant.
Me : Some bits of the map are predictable in terms of what, not when - others are predictable in terms of when, not what - some is not predictable on what or when, other bits are predictable on both ... it's not simple.
X : Why do you think China is such a good player? Have you seen the Bitcoin mess?
Me : What mess? China has made BTC illegal for internal use, forced registration of BTC addresses, is building a Digital Yuan & encourages mining and other exchange operation for external use ...
... it's a perfect response once you realise that bitcoin is a weapon, with a delivery mechanism of greed and a payload of laissez faire that will destabilise any society daft enough to allow it to run unchecked. Only the West is short sighted enough to fall for it.
X : What do those quadrants mean?
Me : On this? Nothing. That's just an artefact from when I was messing around with this over six years ago, trying to see if there was any other useful meaning I could test. I probably should remove them.
... on that note, I've redone the doctrine table with phase I at the bottom, just to reinforce the idea that those concepts are foundational whereas Pioneer -Settler - Town Planner (design for constant evolution) is right at the top of the tree. Thanks for that tip.
... I need to also go through each of the doctrine elements in each phase, using the maps, and trying to place them in a more logical order within the phases, just again to reinforce the point that they build on each other.
X : I think you're wrong on serverless.
Me : I prefer being told that I'm wrong rather than an idiot, a whatever.
X : Does that happen?
Me : All the time. Some moments are more vociferous than others i.e 2006 "Utility compute is the future" or 2012 "OpenStack is a dead duck" ...
... I've been accused of all sorts of things i.e. "having shares in Amazon". I don't, deliberately, so no-one can accuse me of benefiting.
X : Ouch, bet that has cost you.
Me : What I lose in money, I gain in integrity. I value the latter more.
... what you have to remember is the behaviour of trust, or building trust, requires multiple things. You have to value integrity and you have to be right where possible. People can forgive genuine mistakes but not when you've got your hand in the till.
X : Have you seen the StableCoin act?
Me : Nope. Hang on ... wow ... that's good - https://tlaib.house.gov/sites/tlaib.house.gov/files/STABLEAct.pdf - looks like someone in the Gov is awake at the wheel. Before long, registration of ownership of BTC addresses i.e. full transparency. Now we're getting somewhere useful.
You can follow @swardley.
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