Thread by @Daisy_Fancourt, A thread on compliance with rules during #COVID19 using data from @UCL [...]

A thread on compliance with rules during #COVID19 using data from @UCL COVID19 Social Study. NB some pre-prints

1. Politicians were concerned there would be 'behavioural fatigue' during first lockdown. In fact, compliance remained v high throughout

…https://b6bdcb03-332c-4ff9-8b9d-28f9c957493a.filesusr.com/ugd/3d9db5_6028d0aa0e004e5dae6536e7fc2ef280.pdf

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2. Compliance only began decreasing as lockdown eased. People felt things were safer & collective responsibility decreased. But also people found it harder to understand new rules. During lockdown 90% in England understood rules. By August just 45%!

…https://b6bdcb03-332c-4ff9-8b9d-28f9c957493a.filesusr.com/ugd/3d9db5_8f72d734373243f68867ad8465fb9588.pdf

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3. Also breaking the rules became more acceptable after Cummings-gate. There was steep decrease in compliance from May onwards, especially in England where people were most angry and upset (our phone interviews under analysis reinforce this finding)

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31690-1/fulltext

3/14

4. Why were the actions of Cummings significant? Just one man after all. Because the refusal to accept responsibility & apologise rocked trust in government w/ a clear decrease that we've not recovered from in England since

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31690-1/fulltext

…https://b6bdcb03-332c-4ff9-8b9d-28f9c957493a.filesusr.com/ugd/3d9db5_29a5ae83bcd74eb8a238f75fb2d50735.pdf

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5. Government trust is in fact the single biggest behavioural predictor of compliance we've identified during this pandemic - larger than mental health, trust in health service, stressors etc. We humans need to trust to follow what we're told to do.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.19.20215376v1

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6. What about other predictors of compliance? Some groups have been more compliant, including older adults and women. But (contrary to some people's predictions) the more privileged (wealthier & higher education) have been LESS compliant.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.10.20228403v1

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7. We need to think broadly about predictors of compliance too, not just focusing on demographics. Personality type (eg low conscientiousness), pessimism, external locus of control, risk-taking & low empathy are also predictors.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.10.20228403v1

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8. Place also plays an important role. Living in a larger non-overcrowded home, a nicer neighbourhood with less over-crowding and having greater social capital also help compliance. Let us remember lockdown was very different for people with gardens

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.10.20228403v1

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9. But crucially, these trait predictors of compliance have change in potency across the pandemic. All less strong during lockdowns (sensing collective urgency) but stronger as restrictions relaxed. So compliance predictors are *context specific*.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.10.20228403v1

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Do predictors of adherence to pandemic guidelines change over time? A panel study of 21,000 UK...

In the absence of a vaccine, governments have focused on behaviour change (e.g. social distancing and enhanced hygiene procedures) to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. Existing research on the predictors...

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.10.20228403v1

10. So we need to beware of blaming groups based on simple characteristics as the picture is more complex. Also, we need to beware thinking we're better than others.

92% of people think their compliance is higher than the population average.

…https://b6bdcb03-332c-4ff9-8b9d-28f9c957493a.filesusr.com/ugd/3d9db5_29a5ae83bcd74eb8a238f75fb2d50735.pdf

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11. Although compliance has decreased, can it increase again? Absolutely. As cases have increased, so has compliance, especially in the most recent lockdown, across all major socio-demographic groups. Collective urgency & sense of duty again.

…https://b6bdcb03-332c-4ff9-8b9d-28f9c957493a.filesusr.com/ugd/3d9db5_29a5ae83bcd74eb8a238f75fb2d50735.pdf

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12. There are key take-home messages if we want to increase compliance.

13. Pre-conceived notions about who will/won't comply can be wrong & stigmatising. We should beware throwing stones. Some may face tangible barriers to compliance eg caring/finances that need solving.

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14. Everyone needs to play their part! Any exemptions or modifications of rules can affect the compliance of others. Bending rules isn't helpful & can be unwittingly unsafe.

15. Research on compliance needs to continue as predictors are changing as the situation evolves.

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16. Finally there are many complex predictors of compliance so it's vital that government comms uses a plurality of messages - different messages will appeal to different people. Also messages need to be REALLY clear

For more visit our website http://www.covidsocialstudy.org

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HOME | CovidSocialStudy

The COVID-Social Study is a research study run by University College London, exploring te effects of Covid-19 and social distancing measures on adults in the UK.

http://www.covidsocialstudy.org

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