As we near the end of the Trump presidency, I’ve been thinking a lot about the state of relations between Greece and the United States. By any measure, they are better than ever. But that statement comes with an asterisk. A big asterisk. Let me explain.

The basics are familiar. High-level contacts are steady. Lots of visits by Greek officials to the United States and by U.S. officials to Greece. The tone of these visits is uniformly positive, each side praising the other. Goodwill abounds.

But let’s look at some numbers and facts.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) from the United States to Greece is trivial. The Bank of Greece puts the figure at €80 million in 2019. From 2016 to 2019, the sum was €241 million. That total is about what Greece attracted from countries like Canada or Spain in 2019 alone.

The stock of foreign direct investment is, as a result, just over €1 billion. That’s the highest level since 2013, but it’s still lower than it was during the entire period from 2001 to 2012. Even today, in other words, there is less U.S. FDI in Greece than in 2012.

Trade is a bit better. Exports of goods from the United States to Greece have risen since 2015, driven by energy. But U.S. exports to Greece are still about half their 2008 levels, even though Greece’s overall imports of goods were just 17 percent below 2008 levels.

Exports from Greece, of goods and services, are rising too. Exports of services from Greece to the United States are back to their 2008 levels; but that recovery is modest when you think that overall services exports from Greece to all countries are up 18 percent.

The numbers are better in tourism. The number of travelers from the United States to Greece tripled from 2012 to 2019 (2012 was the low point). But travelers from elsewhere grew too. As a share of the total, arrivals from the United States are below their level in 2005.

In short, the direction is positive, but perhaps hard to distinguish from the overall recovery in the Greek economy. And some dynamics—like rising energy exports from the United States—are hardly unique to Greece. Positive figures; but nothing exceptional.

Do recent announcements, like the one made by Microsoft, change my view? A little bit, yes. But I have seen many press releases in my career that fizzled out; timetables that slipped; headline figures that dwindled to something small as time goes on. Let’s see.

I am especially cautious because I have seen a big disconnect between headlines and reality in a sector I know really well: natural gas.

The United States praises Greece for becoming an energy hub. But think of the actual projects that are turning Greece into a hub: a storage tank in Revithoussa, the IGB and TAP pipelines, an FSRU in Alexandroupoli, maybe a storage facility in Kavala.

There are no U.S. companies in these projects. No U.S. investors or financing so far. (In contrast to European companies and European public finance, both of which are material.) From the United States, it's largely about diplomatic support—which is helpful, of course.

And then comes security. Greece feels exposed and insecure. There have always been tensions with Turkey, sure; but nothing as persistent and as intense as the past few years. Whatever the United States is saying and doing, it hasn’t been enough to *really* reassure Greece.

I don’t wish to be overly critical. The relationship is as good as ever, and that’s fantastic. And some issues, like Turkey, are very tricky. But we have to be honest about where our partnership stands. And on several core issues, we can do a lot more. Fin.