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Here I have analysed 2019 TN LS election outcome to arrive at the likely assembly seats that DMK and ADMK alliances would have obtained if LS and Assembly elections had occurred simultaneously and if people had voted similarly in both elections.
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Here I have analysed 2019 TN LS election outcome to arrive at the likely assembly seats that DMK and ADMK alliances would have obtained if LS and Assembly elections had occurred simultaneously and if people had voted similarly in both elections.
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Note: There were also byelections held for 23 assembly seats whose outcome did NOT even closely match with the results of LS elections. But thats in a different thread (will upload later)!
This is exactly why I do not want to predict the fallout of Rajini's entry yesterday
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This is exactly why I do not want to predict the fallout of Rajini's entry yesterday
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Still an analysis of LS results is worth it!
By any yardstick, DMK alliance (DMK+) performed spectacularly in 2019 LS elections. It was so good that even DMK would not have expected the outcome and moreover, it is unlikely to repeat the results anytime in the future.
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By any yardstick, DMK alliance (DMK+) performed spectacularly in 2019 LS elections. It was so good that even DMK would not have expected the outcome and moreover, it is unlikely to repeat the results anytime in the future.
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Of 39 LS seats in TN, DMK+ won 38 seats with ADMK+ winning 1 seat (Theni)
DMK+ vote share was 53% and ADMK+'s was just 31%
If the same votes are transposed onto assembly seats, DMK+ would have won a whopping 218 seats with ADMK+ winning a mere 16 seats.
Details in table
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DMK+ vote share was 53% and ADMK+'s was just 31%
If the same votes are transposed onto assembly seats, DMK+ would have won a whopping 218 seats with ADMK+ winning a mere 16 seats.
Details in table
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The staggering extent of DMK+ win can be gauged by looking at average and range of votes polled by it in an assembly segment compared to those polled by others.
Needless to say, the 3 imposters - NTK, MNM and AMMK - did not cross 10,000 avg votes
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Needless to say, the 3 imposters - NTK, MNM and AMMK - did not cross 10,000 avg votes
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So how wd the above DMK+ and ADMK+ performance translate into individual Party's vote share, strike rate and also number of seats in assembly? See table attached!
Pl note parties that contested in DMK or ADMK symbol are included in the tallies of DMK and ADMK resply
Pl note parties that contested in DMK or ADMK symbol are included in the tallies of DMK and ADMK resply
IUML and VCK lagged behind other parties in DMK+. The analysis also demonstrates that INC, unlike in other states, had a whopping 90% strike rate; most likely becos DMK and INC votes transferred seamlessly. DMK+ alliance seems to have worked out exceedingly well at the ground
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Overall DMK party & ADMK party were more competitive when they fought directly. DMK and INC, though had a huge advantage wherever they faced BJP or DMDK
DMDK was the laggard in ADMK+!
VCK in Chidambaram just squeaked at 1% margin! Wrong seat allocation? +
DMDK was the laggard in ADMK+!
VCK in Chidambaram just squeaked at 1% margin! Wrong seat allocation? +
Analysis of partywise distribution of votes across seats throws fascinating outcome
In no assembly seat, DMK+ votes was below 50K. In 95 seats,DMK+ votes exceeded 1 lakh
For ADMK+, only in 1 seat, votes exceeded 1 lakh
In 3 seats, ADMK+ obtained less than 20000 votes
Table+
In no assembly seat, DMK+ votes was below 50K. In 95 seats,DMK+ votes exceeded 1 lakh
For ADMK+, only in 1 seat, votes exceeded 1 lakh
In 3 seats, ADMK+ obtained less than 20000 votes
Table
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Note the performance of NTK, MNM and AMMK in above table
NTK did not cross 20K votes in any assembly seat; in 185 seats it got less than 10K votes
However MNM & AMMK got more than 20K votes in 19 & 21 seats. They r concentrated in pockets; so advantageous as alliance partners +
NTK did not cross 20K votes in any assembly seat; in 185 seats it got less than 10K votes
However MNM & AMMK got more than 20K votes in 19 & 21 seats. They r concentrated in pockets; so advantageous as alliance partners +
NTK is thinly spread across TN and doesnt bring any advantage to any alliance
Willl DMK fans atleast now refrain from constantly picking up SM level skrimishes with NTK? It is irrelevant even to ADMK!
MMK is strong in urban areas where anyway DMK does well! So limited use!
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Willl DMK fans atleast now refrain from constantly picking up SM level skrimishes with NTK? It is irrelevant even to ADMK!
MMK is strong in urban areas where anyway DMK does well! So limited use!
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If at all, MNM is more useful to ADMK but I doubt if they will align
However AMMK is a different fish altogether. It has significant presence in south and hence is likely to influence victory/defeat in more constituencies there for DMK or ADMK
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However AMMK is a different fish altogether. It has significant presence in south and hence is likely to influence victory/defeat in more constituencies there for DMK or ADMK
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If ADMK+ had also included AMMK in LS elections, DMK seat count in LS would have gone down to 36 from 38
But at assembly level, the loss to DMK+ wd have been more significant
No wonder, Vomit is keen on ADMK-AMMK merger. If so, BJP wd take seats where AMMK is strong
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But at assembly level, the loss to DMK+ wd have been more significant
No wonder, Vomit is keen on ADMK-AMMK merger. If so, BJP wd take seats where AMMK is strong
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Different scenarios panning out in case DMK+ and ADMK+ had aligned with combination of NTK, MNM and AMMK are given in attached table!
DMK+ or ADMK+ do not gain significantly if they align with NTK or MNM!
See table below
DMK+ or ADMK+ do not gain significantly if they align with NTK or MNM!
See table below
However, the conclusion would be different if AMMK is inducted as new partner in either DMK+ or ADMK+
ADMK+ will gain 11 seats taking its count to 27 whereas for DMK+, it will lead to a total sweep in Assembly.
ADMK+ count goes upto 43 if both AMMK and NTK are taken in
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ADMK+ will gain 11 seats taking its count to 27 whereas for DMK+, it will lead to a total sweep in Assembly.
ADMK+ count goes upto 43 if both AMMK and NTK are taken in
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Clearly, this shows why Vomit is keen to arrange a merger between ADMK and AMMK
Situation becomes stark if we analyse results for 23 byelections held alongside LS elections! ADMK+ and AMMK together would have reversed the byelection results
So watch out for what TTV is upto?!
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Situation becomes stark if we analyse results for 23 byelections held alongside LS elections! ADMK+ and AMMK together would have reversed the byelection results
So watch out for what TTV is upto?!
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So, if TN people vote the same way in 2021 Assembly elections as they did in 2019 elections, DMK will still emerge a major victor! But the million $ question is - would TN people vote the same way? Unlikely is my guess!!
So lets summarise :
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So lets summarise :
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1 DMK alliance in its current form has great advantage and it has to be extraordinarily stupid to lose 2021
2 NTK and MNM really dont matter except in less than 5 seats; ignore them
3 AMMK is the one to watch out. Its merger with ADMK will be very helpful for ADMK+
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2 NTK and MNM really dont matter except in less than 5 seats; ignore them
3 AMMK is the one to watch out. Its merger with ADMK will be very helpful for ADMK+
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4 On the other hand, DMK++AMMK may emasculate ADMK+ completely
5 So BJP will do anything for ADMK-AMMK merger
6 BJP wl then demand seats where AMMK & ADMK are strong so as to win min 10 seats
7 I guess ADMK+AMMK merger may follow Rajini entry!
8 BIG Q remains : EVM???
END
5 So BJP will do anything for ADMK-AMMK merger
6 BJP wl then demand seats where AMMK & ADMK are strong so as to win min 10 seats
7 I guess ADMK+AMMK merger may follow Rajini entry!
8 BIG Q remains : EVM???
END
