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This is either going to sound crazy or brilliant in two weeks, but I'll put it out there...The next cabinet move or two Biden makes could make it very easy to bet on subsequent markets based on who will become more or less likely due to Biden's commitment to diversity 1/
For example, Biden has already picked white people for two of the four most prestigious positions (State and Treasury). This makes it very likely that at least one of Defense and Justice will go to a Hispanic or African-American candidate (maybe both) 2/
If you see Flourney getting Defense, bet No on any white candidate being named AG. If you think Biden has soured on her as reported, then bet on one of the African-American men on the board. If he picks Flourney, slam No on all white AG's, No on Flourney if he picks a White AG 3/
Also in this dynamic are HHS and DHS, arguably the next highest profile Departments. DHS has a Latino pick in Mayorkas, reducing the pressure to name Lujan-Grisham to HHS. But if she gets HHS, I think this takes Bacerra out of DoJ. If she doesn't, it elevates him 4/
Being that HHS is likely the next Dept. named and there's been criticism of a lack of diverse picks, I think Lujan-Grisham is still favored. If that ship has sailed, it makes Karen Bass or No to All the next best plays in that market. If Bass gets it, Becerra's stock rises in DoJ
Outside of these six Departments, there are a variety of combinations of appointments for Biden to meet his campaign commitment to diversity. But how these shake out will likely influence other decisions if one group is still seen as lacking representation (including gender) 6/
For example, I think its very likely that Haaland or Connor get DoI because floating the first Native Secretary and then just having it go to Udall would be deflating. I also think Biden will look to break barriers elsewhere if he doesn't deliver on a woman for Defense 7/
I'll end by saying it is important to make these kind of considerations when building a Cabinet. This is not PC or identity politics, any organization is stronger with a variety of voices and backgrounds involved in decision making. White guys have a lot of blind spots. 8/
All of these candidates are qualified for the roles they are being considered for, so if you already have two qualified white guys on the team it makes sense to give extra consideration to a qualified woman of color over another white guy. Don't cry, you'll be fine Rahm. 9/
And my daughter should be able to see people who look like her in positions of power. /End.
BONUS! Regional considerations. Will Haaland and Lujan-Grisham both get pulled from New Mexico? Could Padilla, Becerra, Garcetti, Gomez and Bass all leave California at the same time? Likely not. If one gets picked, the rest become less likely.
