1/6. A thread on #Lebanon political paralysis. The political class’s abdication of civic responsibility lies between the surreal and the criminal. At least as an intellectual exercise, its worth revisiting the question @ishacdiwan asked in September: What explains the paralysis?

2/6. Four possible explanations. A) “incompetence and ignorance”. The political class doesn’t understand the problem and, even if it does it's too incompetent to solve it. Possible. But a year’s worth of conferences and plans tells me this can't be the dominant answer. #Lebanon

3/6. B) Failure of “collective action”. Political players understand the crisis. But the system is atomized and vested interests are orthogonal (“if you win, I lose”). No unified solution can exist. Cabinet posts squabbling is a manifestation of the collective failure. #Lebanon

4/6. C) Lebanese political players are “agents and not principals”. They aren’t the real decision makers but messengers of regional and international dynamics. The “wait for Biden” mantra and the paralytic effect of sanctions seem consistent with this thesis. #Lebanon

5/6. D) The fourth reason is the most insidious. The players actually benefit from the crisis. Paralysis is an active decision by the political class to do nothing, since implosion pushes losses onto the population thereby safeguarding the politicians’ vested interests. #Lebanon

6/6. Whatever the true explanation is (and it probably is a combination of all of the above), the case remains that doing nothing is nothing short of a tragedy. #Lebanon