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1) For my Rickey research, I asked Nats GM Mike Rizzo for an acceptable SB success rate. “To make it worth the risk,” he told me 85 percent for the Nats, emphasis on “success over volume.” Billy Beane said 75 pct when he played, 80+ today. Rickey was 80.7 for his *career.* https://twitter.com/pamsson/status/1334621586582855684
2) Rickey led the AL in SB 12x, eclipsing 85 pct just four times: 1983 (108/127, 85 pct), 1985 (80/90, 88.8 pct), 1988 (93/106, 87.7 pct), and 1990 (65/75, 86.6). Joe Maddon says, “They would have made an exception for Rickey.” Billy disagrees. “He’d be Trout. Power over speed.”
3) The other four years Rickey led the league in SB and his success rate:
1980: 100/126, 79.3
1981: 56/78, 71.7
1982: 130/172, 75.5
1984: 66/84, 78.5
1986: 87/105, 82.8
1989: 77/91, 84.6
1991: 58/76, 76.3
1998: 66/79, 83.5
Also: Vince Coleman 1986 107/121, 88.4
1980: 100/126, 79.3
1981: 56/78, 71.7
1982: 130/172, 75.5
1984: 66/84, 78.5
1986: 87/105, 82.8
1989: 77/91, 84.6
1991: 58/76, 76.3
1998: 66/79, 83.5
Also: Vince Coleman 1986 107/121, 88.4
4) I think Billy is right. Even the greatest base stealer in history wouldn’t be allowed to steal 100 bases in today’s game because the analysis has determined 85 pct to cross the “risk threshold,” and the gifts of an exciting winning, HOF player would be muted.
5) With risk aversion as the dominant measure, MLB doesn’t have base stealers because it doesn’t want them, and with that, a certain type of player, who usually happens to be black.
