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200/240 matches played so far in the #UCL 
and #UEL 
group stage, here is a comparison of 7 different prediction methods in terms of average Rank Probability Score (RPS)
@Pinnacle
@clubelo
@FiveThirtyEight
@elofooty
@EuroClubIndex
@InfogolApp
and #UEL group stage, here is a comparison of 7 different prediction methods in terms of average Rank Probability Score (RPS)@Pinnacle
@clubelo
@FiveThirtyEight
@elofooty
@EuroClubIndex
@InfogolApp
Pinnacle closing odds still leading, Clubelo takes over second position from Infogol and FiveThirtyEight currently the worst. Note how all methods have significantly worsen compared to last week. In fact, 5 out of the 10 most surprising results actually happened this matchday
Another way to compare the methods is to look at the average distance of predictions compared to Pinnacle Closing Odds in order to mitigate the effect of luck
For those of you who are into betting then look closely at the next matchday in the UCL. Pinnacle predictions are on average much worse on matchday 6 than on any other matchday (for obvious reasons)
Bonus info: how does this season compare to previous UCL group stage seasons in terms of Pinnacle Closing Odds RPS? Is the current pandemic having a large influence on results making UCL more surprising/exciting? Well the short answer is "not at all"
