WHY THE HBOMAX STREAMING AND THEATRE RELEASE FOR DUNE ISN’T A BAD THING–AND MIGHT ACTUALLY BE REALLY GOOD

I was worried at first, but I’m not anymore after doing a bit of research.

WHAT WE KNOW

what we know so far, is that WB’s entire 2021 slate, will be on streaming, just like they plan to do with WW84. So in order to actually understand what is happening with Dune, we need to take a look at what WB plan to do with WW84.

Contrary to what I think is popular belief, WW84 will not be on HBOMax the whole time. It will only be available for a month. And we will get into why that is so significant soon. After that one month period, WW84 will play exclusively in theatres. https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2020/11/18/21504152/wonder-woman-1984-release-delay-new-date-warner-bros-disney-black-widow-dune-tenet

After this it will enter what is known as a windowing period. Which is normal after a theatre period is over. It will make its rounds on the VOD front, from Amazon, iTunes, etc. all before once again being available to steam on HBOMax.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR DUNE

Basically the same thing will be the case for Dune. It releases the 1st of October. Remember that one month steaming? Well the monthly cost is $14.99, which means for the month of October you can watch Dune however many times you want, for $15.

This is big deal because they aren’t asking for a yearly subscription, these movies are only available for a month. Which means they will be able to attribute a boost in subscriptions, to specific film releases. Meaning positive data on the platform, will effect sequel prospects.

However there is another catch. HBOMax, is only available in the US at the moment. Which means this only effects the US premier. In the US things with Covid-19 have been really tough, and in many places theatres aren’t open and people don’t known if or when they will be.

This still has an effect on the global market, because according to what WB’s picture group chairman said,

“It allows us to do a global release and a national release in what we think is going to be a checkerboarded theatrical market place for the bulk of 2021...”

A proper global release might not have been in store for us otherwise. Their decision came after constituting with epidemiologists. This was don’t "to guarantee as many movies as we could for the year for the global theatrical marketplace"

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/warner-bros-smashes-box-office-windows-will-send-2021-slate-to-hbo-max-and-theaters

For Dune fans like myself who aren’t from the US, this decision doesn’t change much of anything other then a guarantee that we will have a global theatre release. Yay! But there will be some adjustments where needed around the world, with streaming options in association with HBO

And US fans who want to watch it in theatres, can still make that choice. If a theatre by you is open, go for it! This helps people who aren’t huge Dune fans in the US, and don’t feel comfortable going to theatres yet. They can still watch the movie and pass along how good it is.

This also isn’t gonna effect the decision of fans who are determined to watch this in theatres. As evident in group chats I am a part of, most Dune fans are gonna opt for the theatrical experience, if it is an option for us.

BUT WHAT ABOUT PIRATING?

People are worried that this will be massively pirated and ruin everything. But that isn’t actually the case.

This decision isn’t gonna effect the people who planned to pirate the movie on the first place. It’s gonna have zero impact. Because most movies are pirated when they are in theatres anyway. And this isn’t gonna make a massive amount of people decide to pirate the movie either.

In the US, why bother pirating the movie when all you have to do is pay $15 which is less then a movie ticket, and watch Dune in 4K on your tv verses lesser quality on your phone or computer? And it can be a hassle to get pirated movies anyway.

But for those still worried about piracy, it is actually well known that it is not just a detriment but in many cases a advantage for box-office success. In the shortest form, Piracy is bad for movies pre-release, and good for them post-release. https://www.theburnin.com/lifestyle/movie-piracy-box-office-study/

This study shows that when a movie can be torrented before it’s release, the boxoffice return is 11% lower.
https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=551078094095126000067013127017001095113049061083007066108125012002118093018007099090034029025017045016027096096004093117117000030040043045023117004001114073104093022060052075106127083078075073016072094123083119125086025118065118114064064121119117091065&EXT=pdf

On the other hand, the same study posits that do to word of mouth, movies leaked online after its already in theatres, can see a revenue increase of about 3%. The more people seeing the movie, means more discussion and hype online surrounding it.

Furthermore, it is believed that some of that 11% loss can be made back by having the films be available the same day of release. Which guess what? Is exactly the case with all of WB’s 2021 slate, including Dune.

WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN?

What this means is Dune has the chance at a much stronger US premiere, and a stronger guarantee at a global release, and piracy won’t be an issue. NO NEED TO PANIC!