1/ Important to put Christopher Waller's party-line, squeaker confirmation vote for a spot on the Fed's Board of Governors today into perspective. Graph shows the last floor vote for all Board nominees to reach a floor vote (including Shelton's failed cloture vote) since 1980.

2/ Decline in broad support for Fed nominees is evident over the past decade, tho Waller's sheer party-line vote and Shelton's failed cloture vote stand out as the most divided Fed votes (probably) ever. (Vardaman was confirmed in 1945 w/ 87% yeas but need to make sure no others)

3/ Waller stands out in another way--> how long it took the Senate to confirm him. With the exception of Bush2 appointee Betsy Duke (who was eventually confirmed unanimously), Waller holds the record (over 300 days from nomination to confirmation) for successful) Fed nominees.

4/ Why have these nominees become so contentious (especially Waller, who Trump no doubt thought came from central banking central casting)? It's hard to disentangle all the reinforcing reasons that are coming to bear on these confirmation votes and especially on Waller/Shelton.

5/The simplest explanation is that decades of rising partisanship are finally seeping over into senators' views of the Fed -- and thus shaping their votes on otherwise very low profile seats on the Fed Board. As @PotomacRC and I have argued....

6/...economic downturns & rising salience of monetary policy make the Fed a target of lawmakers seeking to avoid blame for a sour economy. Fed's Increased *political* salience-- alongside rising partisanship on the Hill--are surely driving conflict/delay in confirming nominees.

7/ But why did Democrats--some of whom supported Waller in committee--vote against him on the floor? This is in part a reminder that roll call votes represent more than lawmakers' policy views: They capture the broad array of forces that shape senators' behavior. In this case...

8/ ...the timing of the vote surely mattered to Democrats. As @PeterContiBrown points out, lame duck confirmation of Fed nominees is highly unusual. Voting to confirm Trump nominee after his defeat makes little sense politically for Dems, even those who supported Waller in comm.

9/ Granted, universe of Fed nominees is small. But there are examples of unconfirmed nominees left pending in a lame duck -- Carol Parry (2000), Kroszner/Klane (2008), Landon/Dominguez (2016)-- even if none had progressed out of committee and likely derailed for other reasons.