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NEW @pewtrusts study of time served on probation. Why important? More people on probation than jail, prison and parole combined. 1 in 72 adults. Overloaded system both overpunishes and undersupervises/underserves. 1/ https://pew.org/2V4hbDI
“Iron law” of corrections is that admissions X length of stay (LOS) = population. In this report, we dive deep into LOS, asking “what are avgs/trends for 50 states; can it be safely shortened; and what policies will do so?”
Avg/trends I: probation avg LOS is just under 2 years, down 3% or 22 days during 2000-2018. But it increased in 28 states during that period. In 14 states, increased by a third or more, accounting for 300k add’l years of supervision in 2018 alone.
Avg/trends II: huge variation state-to-state, from low of 9 months in KS to high of 59 months in HI. Probation supervision twice as long in NJ as nearby CT and MD. A quarter the length in KS as nearby AR and OK.
Avg/trends III: huge variation in statutory caps, from 2 years in, e.g., DE to 10 in HI. No max in states like AT, PA, RI, TN, WA and WY. 4 in 5 states allow courts to terminate early, but only 16 offer earned time and only 10 mandate review for early release.
Shorten I: Most reoffending occurs early, in first year. We analyzed 90,000 cases for similar probationers who served different LOS in SC and OR. 90% of those who made it one year w/o a new arrest could have shortened probation with *no* impact on public safety.
Shorten II: moving to optimal LOS would reduce avg LOS in OR from 24->14 months, in SC from 26->18. Total probation populations would have fallen 44 and 32% respectively.
Shorten III: not in report, but if that 32% held across nation, implication is that probation could shrink by well over 1 million people with *no* impact on public safety, as measured by re-arrest. @VanJones68 @EdyHaney @JessicaJackson @VinSchiraldi
Policies I: gov’t agencies can incentivize success and focus limited resources on higher risk individuals/times by reducing LOS. Options incl. statutory limits, earned compliance credits, goal-based supervision, + automated court reviews. @CLALeadership @APPAinfo
Policies II: see examples like CA https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2020/10/13/california-criminal-justice-reforms-can-safely-shorten-probation-parole-terms and Missouri https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2016/08/missouri-policy-shortens-probation-and-parole-terms-protects-public-safety#:~:text=In%202012%2C%20Missouri%20established%20an,the%20conditions%20of%20their%20sentences.
Conclusion I: big systems have big consequences. Revocations of probation are big contributors to jail and prison populations (think COVID and coming budget cuts). But spreading resources thin also undercuts efforts to supervise and service those at higher risk.
Conclusion II: if we get supervision right, we’ll have higher success rates, less crime and drug misuse, and lower levels of correctional control.
Conclusion III: the question now is whether we’ll align our policies with what we know works for public safety. /fin
