Thread: WORST performances by incumbent House Ds who faced an R this November, relative to the WORST D presidential performance in their district 2012-2020 (incomplete, 115 districts done so far)

Omar (MN-05) (-11.07)
Shalala (FL-27) (-6.03)
Ocasio-Cortez (NY-14) (-3.28)
Veasey (TX-33) (-3.23)
Jackson Lee (TX-18) (-2.90)

Shalala sponsored neither GND nor M4A, Veasey sponsored M4A but not GND, Omar/Ocasio Cortez/Jackson Lee sponsored both
Best D overperformances relative to the BEST Democratic presidential performance in their district 2012-2020
Name District overperfomance M4A GND
Courtney (CT-02) (+7.85) Y Y
Keating (MA-09) (+7.33) Y Y
McAdams (UT-04) (+5.70) N N
McGovern (MA-02) (+5.04) Y Y
Cunningham (SC-01) (+4.68) N N
Welch (VT-AL) (+4.5) Y Y
Slotkin (MI-08) (+4.41) N N
Gallego (AZ-07) (+4.22) Y N
Moulton (MA-06) (+4.03) N Y
Levin (MI-09) (+4.00) Y Y
Yarmuth (KY-03) (+3.50) Y N
Castro (TX-20) (+2.71) N Y
Scott (GA-13) (+2.59) N N
Dingell (MI-12) (+2.36) Y N
Castor (FL-14) (+2.32) N N
Lawson (FL-05) (+2.06) N N
Murphy (FL-07) (+1.73) N N
Johnson (GA-04) (+1.63) Y N
O'Halleran (AZ-01) (+1.48) N N
Horn (OK-05) (+1.48) N N
Deutch (FL-22) (+1.40) N N
Connolly (VA-11) (+1.31) N Y
Luria (VA-02) (+1.28) N N
Pingree (ME-01) (+1.23) Y Y
Kilmer (WA-06) (+1.12) N N
The other 85 incumbents did between 1 point better than the best D 12-20 presidential and 1 point worse than the worst D 12-20 presidential in their district

FWIW of this sample of 115 incumbents 31 sponsored M4A and GND, 18 M4A alone, 9 GND alone, 57 neither
So what do we learn from all this?

1. If you're in New England you can still perform very very well while supporting M4A and GND
2. Elsewhere supporting both may not be so great if you're in a less than very safe seat but supporting whichever fits your seat better can be fine
3. It is probably not fine to
(A) Be a Squad member in a less than very very very safe seat
(B) Be a non-Latino without full Spanish fluency in a heavily Latino district (it doesn't appear that Veasey or Jackson-Lee are fluent either and both have heavily Latino seats)
@HotlineJosh @SeanTrende @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa This is a more-than-just New York analysis of House D incumbent performance relative to the last 3 presidential performances in their district. Full spreadsheet is here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bXm5irTO2rpYBot4WC65T2ewbJGBlih5/edit?usp=drive_web&ouid=105369958010131400890&rtpof=true
It's a copy of and enhancement of the sheet @MaronAoriak and others have been putting together
I didn't cherrypick districts, I went with states that have 2020 Presidential results finished on the aforementioned spreadsheet Aaron Moriak sheet and states that appear to be done counting for House. Missing states are AL,CA,CO,LA,MD,NJ,NY outside the city, PA,TN (part),
a few other parts of states
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