Read on Twitter
1/ [THREAD] One of the post-Nagorno-Karabakh war questions left unanswered: Will #Azerbaijan join the #EAEU now? I'm asking because it might explain some of #Russia's (in)actions during the war and reveal its long-term thinking.
![1/ [THREAD] One of the post-Nagorno-Karabakh war questions left unanswered: Will #Azerbaijan join the #EAEU now? I'm asking because it might explain some of #Russia's (in)actions during the war and reveal its long-term thinking.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoUqIxRXMAE_4qm.jpg "1/ [THREAD] One of the post-Nagorno-Karabakh war questions left unanswered: Will #Azerbaijan join the #EAEU now? I'm asking because it might explain some of #Russia's (in)actions during the war and reveal its long-term thinking.")
2/ This is also something the #Armeni|an leadership needs to consider when formulating its future strategy (if it ever did). I don't like predictions, but if #Putin manages to solve one last issue ( #Turkey - briefly below), we might see it happen soon.
3/ RUS has been pushing AZR to join the union for many years. #Karabakh was one of the obstacles many were vocal about that prevented AZR from becoming a member of the EAEU. Was RUS interested in a scenario where AZR "reclaims" Karabakh while RUS troops are welcomed back?
4/ Was that part of the reason why RUS waited for a breaking point in the conflict to intervene? Whatever the case may be, RUS has been pursing a policy of pulling former #Soviet states back to its orbit, what western analysts dubbed as the USSR 2.0 project.
5/ In this instance, it happened at the expense of ARM, which is nothing new. Moscow's position on NK has been consistent for a century. Ever since the region was handed to AZR in the 1920s, all ARM attempts to bring it back were denied.
6/ NK has always been at the center of Russo-Turkic dialogue, a trump card of sorts. Putin's recent comments on AZR territorial integrity are also telling, let no one have any illusions about this. If history repeats, can RUS pull this off again?
7/ Can RUS win loyalty of its Turkic neighbours and lure AZR back in? If Putin's calculations are correct, this should be enough. But TRKY may have different plans. It played far greater role in this conflict to give in easily and allow AZR to freely join the EAEU.
8/ TRKY would certainly look for more concessions. Stability of Putin's regime is also in question. This is a dangerous game ARM needs to be ready for, the stakes are very high. ARM must find a way to spoil the arrangement where there are 3 winners and only 1 loser.
9/ It looks like a pipe dream but the game is not over. I have ideas but I don't want to voice them now. I'm not advocating for Machiavellianism but ARM needs a coherent and pragmatic strategy, with professional and seasoned diplomats in charge, not journalists and opportunists.
10/10 Until the Karabakh conflict is resolved, genuine attempts at building democracy will be crushed. Surrounded by autocratic states, democracy is a liability in the world of international affairs. ARM needs to formulate its own pragmatic model to avoid what is being imposed.
Just to add on what is required from the Armenian leadership. Considering what's happening in Yerevan today, there is no chance that any pragmatic model will be adopted. We've now hit peak polarization
