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So, the UK's #NDC is coming... and before the end of the year, too. That's important because that's what governments pledged to do in the #ParisAgreement - many aren't living up to that timetable, but the UK as #COP26 host is. That's a big
for the UK diplomatically
for the UK diplomatically
Now onto the content. If @BorisJohnson accepts this morning's advice from the statutory advisers @theCCCuk https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/letter-advice-on-the-uks-2030-nationally-determined-contribution-ndc/ the headline figure will be a cut of at least 68% in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by 2030
That is consistent with the UK legally-binding target of hitting #netzero emissions by 2050. Here's a very simple measure (ok, "simplistic" if you like) - 2030 is 2/3 of the way from 1990 to 2050, so UK should logically have cut emissions by around 2/3 by then. So 68% works
The last time Parliament took a decision on its 2030 level of ambition, in discussions on the Fifth Carbon Budget in 2016, it decided on a 61% cut. (You'll see 57% quoted, but that assumed the UK would remain inside the EU Emissions Trading Scheme - now, clearly, we're leaving)
So the recommended NDC increases that by seven percentage points. If you prefer, it entails increasing the pledged speed of carbon-cutting by about 50%, as a ballpark figure (as @FT reported earlier in the week https://www.ft.com/content/c2a2fc67-a590-45c3-bb5a-c026caef435a)
Since 2016, updated science shows that the UK's emissions were higher in 1990 than previously thought. These 'inventory changes' as they're called mean that bigger cuts, around 64%, are needed to hit the Fifth Carbon Budget (more details in my blog https://eciu.net/blog/2020/whats-in-a-number-the-smallprint-inside-the-uks-ndc)
So that's a potted history of the UK's 2030 climate change commitments... 2016, Parliament votes for a 61% cut - subsequent science turns that into an effective 64% - now, Government looks set to decide to up it to at least 68% - a seven percentage point hike
A few caveats. The NDC isn't only about the headline emissions reduction figure. The UK's share of international aviation and shipping emissions is not included in that number, so - what is government going to commit to on reducing that?
The CCC recommends not using international offsetting to hit the 68% target - will Mr Johnson agree to that?
International comparisons: the 68% figure is higher than the EU is likely to go (and it's likely to release its headline number next week) - so, if you like your #Brexit comparisons, one up for the UK
If the EU goes from its existing 40% target to 55% as looks likely, that will entail a greater acceleration than the UK - a hike of about 75% rather than 50% (but again, watch out for some key small-print) - one up for the EU
Putting the lid on this, then: not enough to satisfy all campaigners, but - if Mr Johnson does accept his statutory adviser's proposals - a significant jump in ambition from the UK, already one of the most successfully decarbonising nations
The timing is good, setting the ground for the Climate Ambition Summit on 12th December and so to some extent reassuring developing countries that the UK values integrity of #ParisAgreement. Good diplomatically also in playing to the new US President-elect...
... and something of a friendly challenge to all countries that have set a 2050 #netzero target but have yet to spell out a pathway, a scrutiny process or a plan. We await the full government announcement later today
