I wondered if my spreadsheet's rolling data trendlines for attack strength ratios of MCI MUN LEI LIV CHE vs defence strength ratios of FUL WHU SHU WOL LEE would shed light on who to ©️ in GW11.
Before looking at each in more detail, a quick pointer as to what we're looking for...
The labels denote how many goals the attacking team are expected to score vs an average team or the defending team to concede vs an average team.
Ideally, both the attack and defence trendlines will be tracking upwards indicating an improving attack and a deteriorating defence...
The higher the attack and defence trendline values the more goals the attacking team are likely to score and the defending team concede.
And the bigger the gap between the attack and defence trendlines, the bigger the gulf between them.
First up, MCI vs FUL...
The bad news for KDB, Sterling, Mahrez captainers is City's home attack strength is trending in the wrong direction, albeit last week's 5-0 demolition of BUR maybe signals the end of the slide.
The good news is Fulham's defence is trending in the wrong direction...
There doesn't appear to be any bad news for would be Bruno captainers as MUN away attack strength has remained remarkably consistent, whereas WHU's home defence strength seems to be on the wane again...
Reviews of my rolling 8GW data have long suggested LEI are far more effective away from home, and that continues to be the case for their away attack strength.
Disappointingly for Vardy captainers, SHU have arrested and corrected the previous slide in home defence strength...
This looks to me to be a very promising chart for those captaining Salah, Jota or Mane, as LIV's home attack strength is increasing at the same time as WOL's away defence strength is decreasing...
Finally, the bad news for CHE asset captainers is a rapidly declining home attack strength, albeit from a very high base.
The good news is that the correction in the initial away defence strength weighting assigned to LEE is still continuing.
IDK if anyone else will know how to make sense of these charts let alone find them useful 😳
They're pretty at least, if nothing else 😬
For my part, they have me considering cancelling my planned Vardy party in favour of a Salah soirée instead 🥂
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