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Can the #CovidVaccination strategy fail?
Only 54 to 69% of adults plan to get a shot. Typically, fewer end up getting one.
What if jabs don’t find takers, infections continue, hospitals remain full, lockdowns continue, etc.?
A few ideas on increasing vaccination rates.
1/10
Only 54 to 69% of adults plan to get a shot. Typically, fewer end up getting one.
What if jabs don’t find takers, infections continue, hospitals remain full, lockdowns continue, etc.?
A few ideas on increasing vaccination rates.
1/10
Vaccination strategies (such as the German
) have the objective of “fast possible provision of a effective and safe vaccine in sufficient quantity”. The strategy does not aim at achieving a high vaccination rate! 
https://www.bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/fileadmin/Dateien/3_Downloads/C/Coronavirus/Impfstoff/Nationale_Impfstrategie.pdf
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) have the objective of “fast possible provision of a effective and safe vaccine in sufficient quantity”. The strategy does not aim at achieving a high vaccination rate! https://www.bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/fileadmin/Dateien/3_Downloads/C/Coronavirus/Impfstoff/Nationale_Impfstrategie.pdf
2/
Surveys likely overestimate the actual willingness to get a shot, at least once the pandemic’s fear factor fades.
A 2013 forsa survey showed 54% of >60 years old planned to get a flu shot. Typically, 35% actually get it.
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/411109/umfrage/grippeimpfungen-umfrage-zur-impfabsichten-ausgewaehlter-indikationsgruppen/
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/seasonal-influenza-vaccination-antiviral-use-eu-eea-member-states
3/
A 2013 forsa survey showed 54% of >60 years old planned to get a flu shot. Typically, 35% actually get it.
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/411109/umfrage/grippeimpfungen-umfrage-zur-impfabsichten-ausgewaehlter-indikationsgruppen/
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/seasonal-influenza-vaccination-antiviral-use-eu-eea-member-states
3/
Some may wait. For 
, the ipsos survey suggests 23% would get vaccinated immediately, 31% within 3 months, 19% within a year.
Overall, with the #CovidVaccine not approved for children, a vaccination rate of ~70% of population for herd immunity seems elusive.
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, the ipsos survey suggests 23% would get vaccinated immediately, 31% within 3 months, 19% within a year.Overall, with the #CovidVaccine not approved for children, a vaccination rate of ~70% of population for herd immunity seems elusive.
4/
But a high vaccination rate would have large positive externalities. The public interest in vaccination exceeds the individual interest in many cases.
Well organized logistics for easy access and a public awareness campaign are the least to expect. But can we do more? Yes.
5/
Well organized logistics for easy access and a public awareness campaign are the least to expect. But can we do more? Yes.
5/
First, financial incentives.
Some studies show
paid to healthcare providers or patients increases vaccination rates.
A €50 reward per shot costs €6bn. To compare, the regressive VAT rebate costs ~€20bn. Also, the 2020 #Covid-induced GDP drop is ~€1300 per capita.
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Some studies show
paid to healthcare providers or patients increases vaccination rates.A €50 reward per shot costs
€6bn. To compare, the regressive VAT rebate costs ~€20bn. Also, the 2020 #Covid-induced GDP drop is ~€1300 per capita.6/
Second, non-financial incentives.
For kids, health checks are mandatory to access childcare/schools in some Länder. Today, some businesses require negative 
tests, e.g. airlines.
The strategy paper does not say whether a proof of vaccination is provided to patients.
7/
For kids, health checks are mandatory to access childcare/schools in some
Länder. Today, some businesses require negative tests, e.g. airlines.The
strategy paper does not say whether a proof of vaccination is provided to patients.7/
In September, the German Ethics Council rejected „immunity certificates“ given immunity is hard to prove. @jensspahn dropped the idea.
Proof of vaccination is different from “immunity certificates”, and recent trial data suggest high effectiveness.
https://www.ethikrat.org/fileadmin/Publikationen/Stellungnahmen/englisch/opinion-immunity-certificates.pdf
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Proof of vaccination is different from “immunity certificates”, and recent trial data suggest high effectiveness.
https://www.ethikrat.org/fileadmin/Publikationen/Stellungnahmen/englisch/opinion-immunity-certificates.pdf
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Third, surveillance. 1/3 of respondents who decline the jab fear side effects. Reports of side effects could thwart the vaccination campaign.
The strategy envisions sample-based studies. But why not systematically following up with patients, eg via the #CoronaWarnApp?
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The
strategy envisions sample-based studies. But why not systematically following up with patients, eg via the #CoronaWarnApp?9/
I am sure there are more ideas.
Given side effects and given two shots are required, people may abstain or not complete the vaccination.
The risk of low uptake is discussed in science circles. But hardly on #EconTwitter although this is about a public good & incentives!
10/10
Given side effects and given two shots are required, people may abstain or not complete the vaccination.
The risk of low uptake is discussed in science circles. But hardly on #EconTwitter although this is about a public good & incentives!
10/10
All focus is on vaccine supply, not demand. Isn’t anyone up to discuss the risk of low take-up?
Ccing @BachmannRudi @christianbaye13 @COdendahl @SDullien @GuntramWolff @Lars_Feld @ErikFossing @jakob_eu in hope for a discussion.
For reference: influenza vaccination rates 65+y
Ccing @BachmannRudi @christianbaye13 @COdendahl @SDullien @GuntramWolff @Lars_Feld @ErikFossing @jakob_eu in hope for a discussion.
For reference: influenza vaccination rates 65+y
P.S.: On surveillance, Handelsblatt had a comment including on a planned vaccination app (“Impfapp”) by @herrkloeckner https://hbapp.handelsblatt.com/cmsid/26680810.html
