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What most people miss in the debate about whether masks work at an individual level, is that we'd better hope they don't. Mask mandates have been enforced in many places. If masks work, basic epidemiology predicts that they will cause Covid mortality to worsen. Here's why: 1/5
The logic finds a precise analogy in the epidemiological impact of lockdowns. 2/5 https://twitter.com/NickHudsonCT/status/1333501504494432258?s=20
Herd immunity is an inevitable outcome of any strategy. Once it's attained, we are left with a group that is not exposed. Minimising harm involves making sure the unexposed group contains as many of the vulnerable as possible. See this elegant model. 3/5 https://twitter.com/federicolois/status/1316127717331480578?s=20
The strategy that achieves that involves reducing spread among the vulnerable while NOT reducing it among the non-vulnerable, which is to say, the vast majority. This is what focused protection is about. Yet general lockdowns & mask mandates, if they work, do the opposite. 4/5
If you're not a vulnerable person, every success you achieve in shielding yourself and others like you from the virus shifts the burden onto a granny somewhere out there. Don't put grandma "at the front of the bus". 5/5 @PanData19
