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Law of Unintended Consequences
Have you ever made a decision that was swift, decisive, and perfect for addressing the problem in front of you... only for it to backfire in a major way later?
Well, you might've fallen prey to the Law of Unintended Consequences.
Thread
Have you ever made a decision that was swift, decisive, and perfect for addressing the problem in front of you... only for it to backfire in a major way later?
Well, you might've fallen prey to the Law of Unintended Consequences.
Thread
1/ Way back when India was under British rule, the British government was concerned with the growing number of venomous cobras in the city of Delhi. They were afraid of unnecessary civil casualties and decided on a great and practical solution;
Put a bounty on every dead cobra!
Put a bounty on every dead cobra!
2/ Initially, this was a great success. Large numbers of dead cobras were pilling up and the government thought they had made a great decision.
That was... until they realized that people started breeding cobras for the reward.
That was... until they realized that people started breeding cobras for the reward.
3/ Realizing that they made a big mistake, the government quickly shut down the cobra bounty.
In response, the breeders released their now worthless snakes - creating a now much larger wild population of cobras than before!
In response, the breeders released their now worthless snakes - creating a now much larger wild population of cobras than before!
4/ This was termed the "Cobra Effect" (shocking, I know) and is now used to highlight when incentives that are designed to solve a problem actually make it worse.
It's been used by economists to describe a number of different scenarios but in this case, we'll apply it to...
It's been used by economists to describe a number of different scenarios but in this case, we'll apply it to...
5/ the Law of Unintended Consequences:
When a decision is made that unintentionally creates consequences that are not expected.
- Consider, when one person stands on their tiptoes at a concert to see better. Next thing you know, everyone's doing it and they can't see at all.
When a decision is made that unintentionally creates consequences that are not expected.
- Consider, when one person stands on their tiptoes at a concert to see better. Next thing you know, everyone's doing it and they can't see at all.
6/ These unintended consequences can be seen everywhere.
- Prohibition on alcohol led to more drinking
- Abstinence based education results in higher pregnancy rates
- The war on drugs has created more usage
- Seatbelt mandates led to more car accidents
- Prohibition on alcohol led to more drinking
- Abstinence based education results in higher pregnancy rates
- The war on drugs has created more usage
- Seatbelt mandates led to more car accidents
7/ Personal examples are everywhere too and are often tied to emotional, System 1 thinking.
- Getting a degree with no job prospects bc you wanted the college experience and are now miserable with debt
- Getting lost on the backroads bc you didn't want to sit in rush hour
- Getting a degree with no job prospects bc you wanted the college experience and are now miserable with debt
- Getting lost on the backroads bc you didn't want to sit in rush hour
8/ These issues arise when the second-order consequences have not been thought through.
IOW, any comprehensive thought process considers the effects of the effects as seriously as possible. You are going to have to deal with them anyway.
IOW, any comprehensive thought process considers the effects of the effects as seriously as possible. You are going to have to deal with them anyway.
9/ But why do they happen? Well, there's a number of reasons for that. Here are a few:
- Our ignorance of how systems work
- Putting short term > long term
- Failure to update our thinking
- Consequences aren't linear
- Our tendency to be action-oriented
- Our ignorance of how systems work
- Putting short term > long term
- Failure to update our thinking
- Consequences aren't linear
- Our tendency to be action-oriented
10/ Take note that lots of these are inherent biases (
and why I believe it's so critical to work through our own worldviews).
"Sooooooo what can I do to prevent this?"
Glad you asked because there's a lot to look into.
and why I believe it's so critical to work through our own worldviews). "Sooooooo what can I do to prevent this?"
Glad you asked because there's a lot to look into.
11/ The first, and most obvious, way of avoiding these unintended consequences is by thinking through potential second and third-order effects of any decision you're making.
Obviously, this is much easier said than done and requires some background work on systems thinking.
Obviously, this is much easier said than done and requires some background work on systems thinking.
12/ Thinking in systems requires an understanding of how things are interconnected and interact with each other.
It highlights, specifically, that the relationships between things need to be considered when attempting to predict the outcome of the system itself.
It highlights, specifically, that the relationships between things need to be considered when attempting to predict the outcome of the system itself.
13/ Second, we can establish and adopt different mental models to deal with the situation. @farnamstreet has a fantastic book on this!
These mental models, like understanding your circle of competence and inversion are POWERFUL tools to clear out your thoughts.
These mental models, like understanding your circle of competence and inversion are POWERFUL tools to clear out your thoughts.
14/ Take the concept of 'inversion' for example.
Instead of thinking about the consequences we want from our decision, we can think about the consequences we don't want and work backward.
(If you're an entrepreneur, try thinking about this and survivorship bias).
Instead of thinking about the consequences we want from our decision, we can think about the consequences we don't want and work backward.
(If you're an entrepreneur, try thinking about this and survivorship bias).
15/ Finally, one of the best ways of avoiding this is to think with a long-term lens.
Put long-term interests ahead of short-term dopamine drops.
As the saying goes "Easy choices, hard life. Hard choices, easy life"
Put long-term interests ahead of short-term dopamine drops.
As the saying goes "Easy choices, hard life. Hard choices, easy life"
16/ I hope that enjoyed this thread on the Law of Unintended Consequences. It was greatly inspired by the outstanding threads and storytelling of @sahilbloom 
Will continue to work on more of these related to cognitive biases, decision-making, and seeking wisdom.
Will continue to work on more of these related to cognitive biases, decision-making, and seeking wisdom.
