Before you rank Antonio Gibson in your top 5 dynasty RBs or your top 15 overall dynasty players, we need to have a talk.

A thread

Yes, I wasn't a believer of him developing this quickly out of college. That's my bias and I owned that he's played better than I expected. I made a film thread early in the year and I posted after his Thanksgiving game.

Are you honest about your bias? It can be dangerous

Antonio Gibson has 11 rushing TDs in 139 attempts this year!
7 of those TDs have come in his last 55 attempts!
8 TDs in his last 75 attempts.

To compare, James Robinson has 6 TDs with his 194 attempts this year.

I looked at RBs with double digits TDs the last 5 years.

Here are the best TD%:
Gibson '20 7.9
Kamara '18 7.2
Jones '19 6.8
Gurley '18 6.6
Murray '16 6.2
Blount '16 6.0
Cook '20 5.9

Easily the best run TD% of the last 5 years.

Here's the raw data from that research.

Rushing TD%
'20 AG 7.9 DC 5.9 DH 4.7
'19 AJ 6.8 TG 5.4 DH 5.3 CM 5.2 DC 5.2 MI 5.0 EE 4.0
'18 AK 7.2 TG 6.6 MG 5.7 JC 5.6 DH 5.6 SB 4.2
'17 MI 5.2 TG 4.7
'16 LM 6.2 LB 6.0 SM 5.6 DJ 5.5 DF 4.8 EE 4.7 MG 3.9

Gibson has only 3 games with 60 or more rushing yards.
vs Dal = 128
vs Cin = 94
@ Dal = 115

Rushing yards allowed ranking:
Dallas = 32nd
Cinci = 30th

Rushing yards per attempt allowed ranking:
Dallas = 32nd
Cinci = 30th

Runs of 20 or more yards:
Gibson = 4 on 139 carries
RBs with less carries but equal or more explosive runs = Chubb, Lindsay, Kamara, Melvin, Gus, Edmonds, Booker, D. Harris.
Conner = 5 on 145 carries
Rojo = 6 on 162 carries

He's not making explosive plays at a crazy rate.

Better pass catching 3 down RBs

Yards per reception:

Kamara 9.5 YPR
Swift 8.9 YPR
Dalvin 8.8 YPR
Taylor 8.7 YPR
Jones 7.9 YPR
CEH 7.8 YPR
Robinson 7.8 YPR
Gibson 7.3 YPR
Hunt 6.9 YPR
Carson 6.9 YPR
Zeke 6.6 YPR
Sanders 6.5 YPR
Dobbins 6.1 YPR
Conner 5.8 YPR

Yards before contact NFL ranking = T-14th (2.6)

Yards after contact NFL ranking = T-23rd (2.0)

Attempts per broken tackle ranking = T-5th (8.7)

Overall

-Gibson's TD rate is an outlier
-Feasted on 2 horrible defenses and otherwise hasn't done much rushing
-Not a ton of explosive plays
-YPR is good, not great
-While he's very good at breaking tackles, it isn't leading to lots of yards

I'd sell high.

Need more proof of this bad Cowboys defense? Look at how they’re positioned on Gibson’s TD runs.

No other defender to the right here.

The WR from the left brings in the CB while he gets in the way of the safety here.

The last TD here has some great blocking and bad defense.