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There are many possible reasons violent crime has spiked this year. Record unemployment. Social upheaval from a pandemic. Mistrust of police. Mistrust of government.
The least likely explanation: defunding the police. Because it hasn’t really happened.
The least likely explanation: defunding the police. Because it hasn’t really happened.
A few cities did immediately abolish some specialty units. But among the dozen or so jurisdictions that cut police funding, most cut only a small percentage, and from what I’ve seen, none of the cuts took effect until FY 2021, which began 10/1. The crime surge began much earlier.
Ah, opponents of police reform say. But the protests still could have spurred the surge in violence, either by encouraging anarchy and mayhem, or by angering police and triggering a de-policing Ferguson Effect.”
So let’s look at crime this year in specific cities:
So let’s look at crime this year in specific cities:
The surge in murders in NYC began in April, and got much worse in in May. The first George Floyd protest in the city was on May 28. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/nypd/news/p0504a/nypd-citywide-crime-statistics-april-2020
In Chicago, 2020 homicides have outpaced 2019 all year, starting in January. https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/breaking/ct-chicago-homicides-data-tracker-htmlstory.html
Houston was at a 50% increase in homicides over last year on May 7, nearly three weeks before George Floyd was killed. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-05-07/gunman-sought-after-3-dead-in-string-of-houston-shootings%3fcontext=amp
DC was already seeing a spike in shootings and assaults back in April. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/violent-crime-drops-in-district-amid-the-coronavirus-stay-at-home-order/2020/04/09/5ce6d444-7533-11ea-a9bd-9f8b593300d0_story.html%3foutputType=amp
Indianapolis was looking at a 23 percent increase in homicides by the end of May. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.indystar.com/amp/3156924001
Kansas City started to see a spike in homicides in early May. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.kansascity.com/news/local/crime/article242734626.html
In mid-May, Milwaukee had more than doubled its homicide total over the same time last year. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.jsonline.com/amp/3121220001
Philly homicides were up 26 percent over last year as of March.
https://www.inquirer.com/news/murder-homicide-philadelphia-violence-shot-police-stabbed-coronavirus-20200320.html?_gl=1*1qr1juf*_ga*dnVTWktURHhiOXBnUDFVRkNQVl8yU0ZFdEd5S19lZGx2akJtWmtPYTY0Q3o4X21LSl9wNG0xR3F6Q0JsT0k0Ug..
https://www.inquirer.com/news/murder-homicide-philadelphia-violence-shot-police-stabbed-coronavirus-20200320.html?_gl=1*1qr1juf*_ga*dnVTWktURHhiOXBnUDFVRkNQVl8yU0ZFdEd5S19lZGx2akJtWmtPYTY0Q3o4X21LSl9wNG0xR3F6Q0JsT0k0Ug..
At the end of April, Cincinnati had a 115 percent increase in homicides over last year. https://spectrumnews1.com/oh/columbus/news/2020/05/01/cincinnati-homicides-rise-by-115-percent
There are some exceptions. In Atlanta and Columbus, murders only began to increase over last year after the protests.
But these attempts I’m seeing to blame the nationwide increase in violent crime on protests, “defunding,” and police reform just don’t hold up to scrutiny.
But these attempts I’m seeing to blame the nationwide increase in violent crime on protests, “defunding,” and police reform just don’t hold up to scrutiny.
