Read on Twitter
Yemen Watchers, The Houthi designation is barreling through the 7th floor of State. Here is my understanding of the implications if there is a general Houthi terrorist designation:
1. 95% of Yemen's basic commodities including food is commercially imported. Traders cannot
1. 95% of Yemen's basic commodities including food is commercially imported. Traders cannot
engage in commercial transactions in Yemen if they touch the US banking systems at all [which they do].
2. Pompeo rejects UN calls, including WFP, to amend, alter the designation. So, all food/humanitarian aid will stop unless there are specific, complicated carveouts,
2. Pompeo rejects UN calls, including WFP, to amend, alter the designation. So, all food/humanitarian aid will stop unless there are specific, complicated carveouts,
which can't realistically be completed during the remainder of this administration. There has been no interagency process as far as I understand, with the different agencies and departments not sharing their full analysis in a coordinated manner.
3. Houthis control the FSO Safer, the oil tanker that is about to disintegrate. A leak from the Safer will be 4x bigger than the Exxon Valdez and will close down the Red Sea if/when it breaks. The UN or commercial contractors may not be able to mitigate that risk.
4. Prisoner exchanges btw combatants may halt bc no international organization can serve as an intermediary. Prisoner exchanges are positive first steps to de-conflict.
5. There needs to be more analysis on the Central Bank - bc it is split between Aden and Sanaa - but the branches do coordinate. I am not sure of the fiscal, monetary implications of a DTO, but it could be profound on the entire economy and cause a complete collapse.
Bottom line: The Houthis are bad actors, the humanitarian crises first and foremost rests on their shoulders. But in an effort to spike Iran, Pompeo, et al may simply be doing immense harm to millions of Yemeni people without thought, or careful consideration.
