1/ Windsor, Ontario

Some chatter in Q&A’s in last few daily briefs with Premier/health officials re: rising cases in Windsor & potential for moving region to lockdown (just moved to “Red” zone on Mon, Nov 30).

Concern is hospital “overrun”… local hospital trends shown here…
2/

Case picture: yes, cases are rising, but overwhelming majority are traced to close contact or outbreak. Averaging only ~8 reported community cases of unknown origin per day.
3/

Overall new emergency admissions for three main Windsor-Essex hospitals appear to be:

*FLAT* for the entire month of November.

(Entire Erie-St.Clair area including Chatham/Sarnia also flat).
4/

Overall hospital admissions for respiratory illness and infections (excluding COVID19 admissions) in all of Erie-St. Clair appear to be:

*Trending down, and a full standard deviation *LOWER* vs. historical seasons*
5/

Overall hospital admissions for respiratory illness and infections (*including* COVID19 admissions) in all of Erie-St. Clair:

*Trending flat/down, and still *LOWER* vs. historical seasons*
6/

Even accounting for reporting delays, and for delays from symptom onset to, unfortunately, hospitalization, cases in Windsor have been rising since ~Oct 15, without a commensurate increase in overall emergent admissions, according to the above presented data.
7/ *IF* (and it’s still only an *IF*) Windsor, Ontario is thrown into lockdown, the people & businesses of that community would a deserve an explanation for such a measure, especially heading into Christmas season, in light of what appears to be normal/below normal hosp activity.
8/ End Thread

Data sources:
https://www.kflaphi.ca/ontario-acute-care-surge-monitor/
https://www.kflaphi.ca/aces-pandemic-tracker/

If I am interpreting this data incorrectly, please reply to this thread to inform me/everyone.
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