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On the other hand I've been very frustrated since reading the coverage of the CER Energy Futures 2020 report. In particular related to the oil production forecasts. Statements like "all CER scenarios show increasing oil production" are both true and misleading. 1/
They are true, because the report only models a "reference" case and a "evolving" case. But they are misleading because they can be heard as "it is almost certain that Canadian oil production will rise until 2040/2050". But seeing that is hard 2/
First, what cases are modeled in the report? A reference case is a modelling tool, showing what would happen if everything was frozen in today's policies. In Canada that would mean no new climate policies, no LCFS, no new ZEV, no increase in carbon tax beyond 2022
Its useful in modelling because it gives you a baseline to compare against, but its actually a very unlikely outcome. Then there is the "evolving" case, which means climate policy continues to be implemented at a pace that is similar to what has been done previously.
That is the most ambitious climate policy case that the energy futures report models. Will Canada pick up the pace on climate policy? It isn't 100% certain they will but it certainly also isn't 100% certain they won't.
And moreover (as I pointed out previously) there seems to be no modelling of how global oil demand might decrease and what that might do to Canadian production.
The focus of the future of Canadian energy in a net zero world is how technologies could reduce the production footprint of oil sands, with only a passing mention of the potential for decrease in demand.
Scenario planning is only useful if it covers the range of potential future scenarios. And now we have a report from the Canadian Energy Regulator that leaves out a key part of the potential future. I'm writing up these thoughts but I'm honestly depressed today about it.
Because its really quite rational that people will see those (for those who do) as the comments from a single observer, vs the official government report on the future production forecasts.
That there are going to be other voices on the topic gives me some hope https://twitter.com/dalebeugin/status/1334217977571520513?s=20
But also
