Thread by @Cinzia_Bianco, Strong indications of small breakthrough on the #Qatar crisis

Dr. Cinzia Bianco

Cinzia_Bianco

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Strong indications of small breakthrough on the #Qatar

crisis - with a provisional/trial framework for a bilateral détente btwn #SaudiArabia & #Qatar

in the last phases of negotiations. We are closer than in Dec 2019, but the content discussed is the same so what changed? 1/

After having all but green-lighted the #Qatarcrisis in 2017, #Trump and his admin will of course take credit for the breakthrough, when in fact #JaredKushner is just there to cut the ribbon. #Doha #Riyadh 2/

In fact this is yet another example of #Riyadh considering their options & preparing for how regional affairs will change under a #Biden admin. But #SaudiArabia doesn’t mind giving #Trump this ‘win’, because - as said previously - they want to balance until Jan. #US #Qatar

Really key to highlight here that several senior (in every sense) #SaudiArabia policy-makers have had doubts about the effective accomplishments of the strategy on #Qatar

for a while already. But they were “outvoted”. 4/

Now, the situation is different. Having too many hot fronts when a #Biden admin enters the #WhiteHouse (given the strong criticism vs #Saudi regional assertiveness) is problematic. So #Riyadh signals flexibility. The durability and depth of this flexibility remain *fragile* 5/

Many possible road blocks, ie that #SaudiArabia’s strongest regional partner - the #UAE - is most certainly not on board. This would add to several disagreements btwn #Riyadh & #AbuDhabi in the past months, on #OPEC, #Yemen. #AbuDhabi derailed the process in Dec 2019. But.. 6/

...let’s not start predicting #Riyadh breaking up with #AbuDhabi. As I said often the #MbS - #MbZ relationship is deeper than geopolitics. The last thing #MbS needs now is to break-up with someone who has powerful friends in #Washington. So more balancing ahead! #Qatar

7/7

Very sharp observation as usual from @MikeRStephens. My guess is this will only be a temporary detente between #SaudiArabia & #Qatar

so the full prize remains unpacked for #Biden. https://twitter.com/mikerstephens/status/1334201886057041920