No actual disagreement https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1334178253888761858?s=20

To the extent there's a disagreement (and I wouldn't even call it that), it's about a very valid question about when (and potentially how) to allocate voters of 'unknown' race in GA. Whether you do so doesn't affect the conclusion, but it's being used to imply that it does

As long as I've been at the Times, none of my GA analyses have allocated 'unknown' voters. That's in part because you wade into the debate about how to do it, which seems unnecessary if it doesn't materially affect your findings--as in this case

At the end of the day, I don't see any actual disagreement over any of the words in the article or its conclusion: the black share of the electorate dipped, to its lowest level in a while, bc black turnout didn't surge to the same extent as nonblack turnout

This isn't specific to Georgia. It appears to be true in NC, where the data is of similar quality and nearly all of it is in. It's probably true in MI/WI/PA, where the data isn't of similar quality but the same geographic pattern--relatively weak turnout in MIL/PHI/DET holds

In the majority black wards of Milwaukee, turnout fell beneath 2016 levels. In Philadelphia's majority black wards, there was basically no change.
TBH, the only interesting question is whether these spots are in more severe population declines than the census says

Well, as I said, if you go down the road of allocating the 'unknown' voters you wind up having to debate about it. The data at my disposal says they're no more likely to be black--and probably less--than voters of 'known' race. https://twitter.com/sandyd2713/status/1334199062661312514?s=20

But I don't want to debate about whether the 'unknown' vote is 26 or 35% black, or whatever, because a) it's not knowable (they're unknown!); b) it doesn't make a difference: all of the hard, factual ways of analyzing the electorate show a dip in the Black share of voters

Ultimately, dwelling on this very legitimate question winds up obscuring from the fact that the conclusions aren't contested. It let's you say you think the analysis is 'wrong,' without being willing to say that the black share of the electorate didn't drop

We have three kinds of data:
--our survey responses (we call off the file, so we can compare voter file v. poll race)
--the commercial modeling by L2, our voter file vendor
--our own modeling, mainly based on the black share of an unknown voters' precinct https://twitter.com/SimonDunn321/status/1334202782765641730?s=20