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The Economic Consequences of the Vaccine.
This is the:
1. First approved human coronavirus vaccine ever, not just Covid-19
2. First ever vaccine approved mid-pandemic ...
Latter will have huge economic impact...
blog here... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55161094
The Economic Consequences of the Vaccine.
This is the:
1. First approved human coronavirus vaccine ever, not just Covid-19
2. First ever vaccine approved mid-pandemic ...
Latter will have huge economic impact...
blog here... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55161094
1. Vaccines in general have saved more lives than almost anything apart from clean water. They have been shown to pay for themselves and much more... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7371956/#!po=0.373134
2. One way to look at this is the board meetings where finance directors are signing off investment plans for 2021/22 right now - can be based on a more normal, if not entirely normal situation as year progresses = investment, growth, fewer job losses
3. in March, frankly brilliant @resfound report correctly anticipating double digit hits to GDP and borrowing, also pointed to precedent from Ebola/Spanish flu, with multiple peaks, waves. A mid pandemic vaccine could shift things more SARS-like https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2020/03/Safeguarding-governments%E2%80%99-financial-health-during-coronavirus.pdf
4. So benefits from an effective, trusted, widely available mid pandemic vaccine likely to be very significant, could be the equivalent of the East Asian countries effective public health measures, which helped minimise impact of both SARS and Covid-19...
5. report above was written by @rjdhughes who is now OBR chief and was responsible for 3 scenarios last week. This news pushes us far closer to “upside” scenario of wide availability in Spring, & enough econ reopening by end of the furlough scheme, to keep unemployment contained
6. Two notes of caution -now plausible however that Q1 will still drag, perhaps even more so, as both mandatory and voluntary social restrictions continue at a higher level than otherwise because “one last push” required. Also impact of Brexit trade changes/ disruption in UK & EU
7. Successful vaccine rollout now baked in to asset prices - share markets and housing - any plausible scientific deviation or setback would now weigh heavily....
8. But basically effective trusted vaccine, rolled out efficiently and safely = economic stimulus the BoE and Treasury could only dream of.
Vital for lives, but also livelihoods.
Vital for lives, but also livelihoods.
