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1/13 This thread is a deep dive into Covid In Florida, but some of my comments apply nationwide. TLDR is that it’s not as bad as the media says. I’m a Data Engineer/Architect/Investor/Writer on EV’s & Solar @gummibear737 @Hold2LLC @jhaskinscabrera @ThomasEWoods @Northwomn
2/x Let’s start with cases because that’s what everyone does, not because they are a great measure of the situation. Looks like we had a peak in the summer and we are having a smaller peak now (nationwide a bigger peak, but I may address that later). Ok, what could be the cause?
3/x Hmm. If we are doing twice the testing as September and finding four times the cases, couldn’t the increased testing be finding cases that were undetected before?
4/x If that we’re the case, the test positive rate would be flat. Well it isn’t flat, but let’s just say increased testing explain half but not all the increase in cases.
5/x So what caused this increase? I don’t think it is the schools (too late for that) or any change in policy (they haven’t been any). Most likely is fall came and many people spend more time indoors in fall. But I’m not really sure.
6/x What about hospitals? I’m so glad you asked! This further confirms my hypothesis that cases have only doubled since October (not gone up 4 times like you would think if you depended on mainstream media for your info). So does this present a problem?
7/x The first chart shows that there is PLENTY of capacity in Florida’s hospitals and the second shows Covid is a tiny minority of what they treat. Heart attacks, cancer, & others things are the big issues we don’t talk about since Covid sucked all the oxygen out of the room.
8/x let’s move on to Deaths. We have heard from the beginning that Covid is much more deadly for older people than younger people and these charts bear that out.
9/x This chart shows Covid is more dangerous than the Flu for older people but less dangerous than the flu for younger people. But is the Flu really what we should compare it to?
10/x these charts from 2016 and 2017. For people under 45 years old, the big risks are accidents, suicide and Cancer. Way bigger risks than the flu or Covid. Lockdowns make suicide rates worse and discourage people from getting cancer tests and treatments
11/x lockdowns might reduce accidents since people travel less, but home based accidents would increase, and child abuse “accidents” would likely greatly increase. For those older that 45, both heart disease and Covid start to become significant risks.
12/x Florida deaths haven’t spiked nearly as much as cases for 3 reasons. #1 as I mentioned, true cases have only doubled from summer, not gone up fourfold due to testing #2 better treatment #3 Deaths lag cases/hospitalizations
13/x my conclusion: It’s about the same as the whole 2020, Covid is a real risk for older folks, lockdowns are a real risk for younger folk. Hospitals are fine and just keep doing what your doing till vaccines change the game in a few months.
